 "Harris & Trump are deadlocked in polls, but are 1 small error away from landslide, shows analysis")
Even as Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump are more or less deadlocked in polls, they might be just one minor polling error away from a landslide victory, according to an analysis.
As internal divisions and political polarisation in the United States stand at levels unprecedented in recent years, polls suggest that the 2024 presidential election is set to be very narrow, but G Elliott Morris, the Editorial Director of election news and analytics outlet FiveThirtyEight, that both Harris and Trump are in a position to score a landslide victories if polls go even slightly wrong — as they have gone wrong in recent years.
Most polling averages put Harris 1-2 per cent ahead of Trump which is well within the margin of error, effectively meaning that the two are tied.
For example, even as The New York Times shows Harris ahead of Trump by 1 per cent in polling average, Chief Political Analyst Nate Cohn notes that neither of the candidate has any “material lead” in decisive swing states and Polling Editor Ruth Igielnik notes that “the polls are so remarkably close that neither candidate has a meaningful edge in this final stretch”.
Trump may win over 300 seats — so may Harris
In the 2020 presidential election, the polls overestimate Joe Biden’s lead by around 4 per cent. The polls were also proven wrong in 2016 when most of them incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton as defeating Trump.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsIf the polls are off by the same margin of 2020, then Trump would win all swing states and sweep the Electoral College in a landslide with 312 votes as against the required 270, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Morris.
Taking the margin of error of 4 per cent, most of the swing states could still go either way. Similarly, the overall forecast is also within the error range.
As per the latest FiveThirtyEight forecast, Trump has 52 per cent chances of winning the election and Harris has 48 per cent.
Factoring in the margin of error, the contest is effectively tied.
Morris maintains that either of the candidates can still win more than 300 Electoral College seats.
The road to landslide victory
There is a 60 per cent chance that either of the candidates would win over 300 Electoral College seats, according to Morris’ calculations.
Harris could win 300 seats by winning five of the seven swing states and Trump by winning six out of the seven, said Morris.
As has been the norm for Republicans lately, Trump is favoured to win even if he loses the popular vote by 1-2 per cent, but he would be headed for a landslide if he wins popular vote by 1-2 per cent, noted Morris.
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