Can Trump or Harris win even if they lose swing state Pennsylvania?

The America voted for the new president on Tuesday in the election that shaped up to be one of the most unpredictable and volatile in recent history. The race is deadlocked, with Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, 60, and former Republican President Donald Trump, 78, virtually neck-and-neck in the final stretch. Both have focused their campaigns on securing key battleground states, and none is more crucial than Pennsylvania, which could hold the fate of the White House in its hands.

Known as the Keystone State, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes make it the biggest prize among the swing states. Historically, the winner of Pennsylvania has had a strong chance of winning the overall election, with elections analyst Nate Silver calculating that the candidate who takes the state has a 90 per cent chance of securing the presidency.

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Why is Pennsylvania so important?

With its mix of urban and rural voters, Pennsylvania has become a symbol of the nation’s political divide. In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won the state by a slim margin of around 80,000 votes, helping him flip it from Republican red to Democratic blue. Since then, both parties have poured resources into the state, making it the focal point of the 2024 race.

If Harris wins Pennsylvania, along with key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and one congressional district in Nebraska, she could secure the presidency.

On the other hand, Trump can still claim the White House if he wins Pennsylvania, plus North Carolina and Georgia, among other swing states. As political analyst Patrick Murphy, a former congressman from Pennsylvania, put it: “It’s the granddaddy of all the swing states.”

For both candidates, Pennsylvania remains pivotal—but could they still win the election without it?

Can Trump win Presidency without Pennsylvania?

Though Pennsylvania carries the most electoral votes, Trump could still win the presidency without it, but his path becomes significantly more difficult. The former president would need to win several other battleground states to compensate for the loss of Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes.

One potential route for Trump is through Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina—states where recent polls show him leading. If Trump wins those states, he would need to capture at least one of the remaining Great Lakes battlegrounds—Michigan or Wisconsin.

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Although Harris currently leads in both, Trump has strong memories of his 2016 victory in Wisconsin and came within a narrow 20,000 votes of winning it again in 2020.

For Trump to win without Pennsylvania, he would need a combination of victories in states that he has historically done well in or has a narrow lead in, making it a tight race that could go down to the wire.

Can Harris become President without Pennsylvania?

For Harris, a victory in Pennsylvania would be the clearest path to the presidency, but it’s not her only route. She could still win without it by securing victories in Michigan and Wisconsin—both of which she’s currently polling ahead in—and by picking up other swing states like North Carolina and Georgia.

A more unconventional path could involve Harris sweeping the Sun Belt states—Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia—even without winning the northern battlegrounds. This would be a long shot, but campaign strategist David Plouffe suggested that Harris’ team is not ruling it out, especially if the race tightens further in the final days.

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One other potential avenue for Harris is winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and at least two of the southern swing states where Trump holds a slight edge. If she can flip either North Carolina or Georgia alongside Arizona and Nevada, she could potentially win the presidency without Pennsylvania.

The tipping point: Will Pennsylvania be the deciding factor?

Despite the potential for both candidates to win without it, Pennsylvania remains the most critical state in this year’s election. According to FiveThirtyEight, there is a 22 per cent chance that Pennsylvania will be the “tipping point” state—its electoral votes determining the final outcome of the race.

The contest in Pennsylvania is expected to be razor-thin, and with both sides pouring resources into the state, it could well be the state that tips the balance in favour of either Trump or Harris.

With inputs from agencies.

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