Trump overtakes Harris, has 4% more chance to win, shows latest US presidential election forecast

For the first time in the US election campaign, Republican nominee Donald Trump has overtaken Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, according to a new forecast.

Just two weeks before the November 5 election, former President Trump has overtaken Vice President Harris, according to the latest Decision Desk-Hill forecast.

The forecast shows that Trump currently has 4 per cent more chances of winning the US presidential election than Harris.

While Trump has 52 per cent chances to win the election, Harris has 48 per cent chances, as per the forecast.

NEW: Trump has overtaken Harris for the first time in @thehill/@DecisionDeskHQ's presidential election forecast. He how has a 52% chance of winning, per the model. https://t.co/r0K5RIWWUS

— Brandon Conradis (@BConradis) October 20, 2024

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Even though Trump is a “slight favourite” to win the US presidential election, the outcome still remains a toss-up as the most crucial swing states that decide the election are too close to make a conclusive prediction, according to the Decision Desk HQ.

While Trump has gained a lead in polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, adding to his existing advantages in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, polling in the seven key battleground states —Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin— remains within the margin of error, which means the election result could go either way, said the Decision Desk HQ.

These states —Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin— are expected to be decisive in determining which nominee reaches the crucial 270 electoral college-mark and currently neither Trump nor Harris has a clear lead to secure that number, as per the Decision Desk HQ.

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For much of the past year, polls had consistently put Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, but that changed when Harris over the Democratic ticket for presidency. Harris flipped the lead and revived the Democrats’ hopes to retain the presidency. But, with time, cracks have emerged, such as Trump making inroads among Latina and Black voters, and the latest forecast has now favoured Trump over Harris.