 "Former US President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign rally supporting Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024 Pittsburgh. (Photo: AP)")
As the focus has shifted to key swing states in the last leg of US presidential election, former President Barak Obama on Tuesday (October 22) joined the Democrats’ campaign for Kamala Harris in the key battleground state of Wisconsin.
Harris and her Republican rival former President Donald Trump are spending all of their resources and energies in wooing the swing states in the final two weeks of campaign ahead of the Election Day on November 5. The key focus in undecided voters and moderates who may swing to either side.
While Harris is reaching out to moderate Republicans and Independents miffed with Trump over his deviation from traditional Republican values, crass campaign, and questionable character, Trump is seeking to make inroads among traditional Democratic Party’s voters miffed over economy, jobs, and immigration, and at times the perceived leftward tilt of the party.
Here are three reasons why Obama’s campaign in Wisconsin matters.
Wisconsin is a key swing state
Wisconsin is a key swing state in the 2024 US presidential election.
Trump has a 2 per cent razor-thin lead over Harris in Wisconsin, according to Decision Desk HQ-Hill’s forecast.
The forecast notes that as the lead is well within the margin of error, the contest can go either way in Wisconsin and the state cannot said to be leaning either way with confidence at the moment.
Wisconsin is among the most critical states for US elections and one which sees among the fiercest contests. This is shown by the fact that previous four presidential elections in the state, except for the 2008 and ‘12 elections when Obama was on the ballot, were decided by less than 1 per cent margin, according to the Decision Desk-Hill.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsEven as Obama won the state with record margins in 2008 and ‘12, Trump flipped the state in 2016 in a sweep of Midwestern United States, but Joe Biden flipped the state again in 2020.
Early voting starts in Wisconsin today
Early voting started in Wisconsin on Tuesday (October 22).
Along with the presidential election, elections are also being held for the state’s Senate and House of Representatives’ seats.
As per the latest Decision Desk-Hill forecasts, Democratic candidate Tammy Baldwin has an advantage in the Senate race whereas Republicans are expected to win six of the state’s eight House seats.
Obama remains a rockstar in Wisconsin
Harris is counting on Obama to be her trump card against the Republicans in Wisconsin. The reason is his rockstar status in the state.
Since the 1950s, the only two candidates to win Wisconsin with double digit margins have been Bill Clinton and Obama. The victories of Obama are particularly historic as he won the state a 14 per cent margin in 2008 and with more than 5 per cent votes in 2012 at a time when the election had acquired a reputation of producing winners with razor-thin margins.
For context, consider this: In the previous four presidential elections in Wisconsin without Obama on the ballot, the winner was decided by a margin less than 1 per cent.
As soon as Obama was off the ballot, the trend returned. In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin by 0.77 per cent and Biden flipped the state in 2020 with an even narrower margin of 0.63 per cent.
Harris has deployed Obama and running mate Tim Walz in the state who are scheduled to hold a rally in state capital Madison on Tuesday.
While history favours Obama, the state’s track records and Trump’s inroads among traditional Democrat vote banks of Black Americans mean that Harris’ road is not smooth in Wisconsin.