From security guarantees to territorial control, these differences led to failure of Ukraine-Russia peace talks

Even as Ukraine and Russia have both laid out maximalist conditions for the end of war today, the two countries were negotiating in the early months of the war.

The New York Times has reported that the two countries were willing to make compromises in the negotiations held during February-April 2022.

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in what Russian President Vladimir Putin dubbed a ‘special military operation’. The idea was to score sweeping military victories across Ukraine and topple Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government within days and replace it with Moscow’s proxy. As that did not happen as Ukrainians mounted a fierce defence and Russians suffered setbacks after setbacks, the Russian war-efforts shifted the focus from capturing Kyiv to focussing on the country’s east. Since then, the war has been raging in the eastern parts where Russia has captured vast swathes of land.

Within days of the outbreak of the war, talks began between the two countries, according to The Times.

Even as the talks led to the creation of two drafts of a peace treaty between the two countries, the talks eventually collapsed as the conditions of the countries hardened and common ground could not be found, according to the newspaper.

The sticking points that failed Ukraine-Russia talks

The sticking points were around Ukraine’s future membership of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the territory that Ukraine would cede to Russia, the security guarantee guarding Ukraine from a future Russian invasion, etc.

1. Ukraine’s neutrality

Russia demanded that Ukraine must “never join NATO” or other alliances, “host foreign military bases or weapons”, or “conduct military exercises”.

On its part, Ukraine said it would be “permanently neutral state” and to “terminate international treaties and agreements that are incompatible with permanent neutrality”.

Eventually, the draft agreement included that that Ukraine could join the European Union (EU) but not NATO and would declare itself permanently neutral, according to The Times.

2. Security guarantees

One of the biggest sticking points was issue of security guarantees sought by Ukraine in case Russia attacked it again after making peace this time.

Ukraine wanted a collective defence-like clause under which Ukrainian allies would come to its aid in case Russia attacked it again, according to The Times. That was unacceptable to Russia.

The collective defence is the foundation of the NATO. Under NATO’s principles, an attack on one member is an attack on all and allows for a collective defence of the member being attacked.

The Times reported that Russia agreed to the idea of security guarantees but with the condition that Russia will also be one of the guarantors. It also said that a unanimous decision would be needed to for the intervention of guarantors. This meant that Russia as one of the guarantors would get a veto on the intervention against its own invasion of Ukraine.

There was also disagreement on which countries could be guarantors, as per the newspaper.

3. The question of territory

While it was certain that Ukraine would need to cede territory to Russia to end the war, the question was how much and in what manner.

While Ukraine agreed to not make any military efforts to retake Crimea that Russia had annexed in 2014 and solve the issue over 10-15 years in talks, it refused to recognise Russian control over the territory, according to The Times.

Similarly, for other parts in the country’s east to be ceded to Russia, Ukraine agreed to accept Russian occupation without recognising Russian sovereignty over those territories.

4. The nature of ceasefire

How any ceasefire would be implemented was also an issue of disagreement.

Under Russian terms, its own forces would have more flexibility in withdrawal from the frontlines while Ukrainian soldiers would withdraw at once, according to The Times.

The paper reported that Ukraine insisted that the ceasefire was dependent upon the Russians as the war could stop anytime the Russians stopped fighting.

5. Russia’s insistence on shaping Ukrainian identity

One of the strange sticking points was the Russian insistence that Russian language be declared as one of the official languages of Ukraine as per the terms of the peace deal, according to The Times.

Ukraine balked at the idea and said it was “not related to the subject matter of the treaty”, as per the paper.

Russia also wanted specific laws on Ukrainian culture and language to be repealed.

6. Limits on Ukrainian military forces

As per the terms of the peace deal, Russia wanted to impose limits on the size of the Ukraine’s military and the kind of its weapons and the range of weapons.

The Times reported that Russia sought to limit Ukraine’s military to 100,000 personnel, 147 mortars, 10 combat helicopters, and missiles to be limited t0 25 mile (40 kms) range.

While Ukraine was willing to accept the limits on its military’s size and weapons, what they proposed was as follows: military of up to 250,000 personnel, 1,080 mortars, 60 combat helicopters, and missiles of range of up to 174 miles (280 kms).

What was biggest sticking point?

The biggest sticking point was the question of security guarantees. Ukraine wanted guarantees that Russia would not attack once the treaty has been signed.

In case Russia attacked Ukraine after the signing of the treaty, then a bunch of countries, who would have been guarantors of the treaty, would come to the aid of Ukraine. This was the “biggest problem” for Russia, as per The Times.

Moreover, while Russia started negotiating with maximalist positions, its demands fell a notch with every battlefield reversal in the initial weeks of the war, according to the paper.

Even though the talks eventually failed, one of the members of Ukraine’s negotiating team said last year that they “were very close” to a deal in April 2022.

“We managed to find a very real compromise. We were very close in the middle of April, in the end of April, to finalize our war with some peaceful settlement,” said Oleksandr Chalyi, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, at a discussion in Geneva in December 2023.