 "Labour Party won in a landslide under Sir Keir Starmer's leadership. AP")
Sir Keir Starmer, the new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, will have little time to settle before embarking on his first security and foreign policy assignment.
On June 9-11, Starmer will be in Washington DC to attend the NATO Summit to mark the 75 years of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) founding. But it will not be an anniversary gala.
The NATO Summit would be taking place at a time when Europe is facing the worst security crises since the World War II as Russia continues its war on Ukraine and a number of European countries live in apprehension of the conflict’s escalation. A spiralling war is also raging in the Middle East and China’s hegemonic designs in the Indo-Pacific region runs afoul of the rules-based international order. Starmer has to hit the ground running as there is no honeymoon period.
The possibility of a second term of Donald Trump, who has indicated he would pursue an isolationist foreign policy, has also made Europe anxious.
Rishi Sunak, the previous British PM, had said that the UK “stands at a crossroads” ahead of “some of the most dangerous years”. It is now Karmer’s job to navigate the UK through these challenging times.
The Russian challenge to Europe — and direct threats to UK
Starmer takes over the British premiership at a time when the Russian threat looms large over Europe — and specifically the UK.
Over the past decade, Russian agents have targeted dissidents on British soil and Russian state-backed cybercriminals have attacked British critical infrastructure. Just last month, a Russia-sponsored cyberattack on the British National Health Services (NHS) compromised the system and led to the cancellation of thousands of operations and appointments.
Starmer has pledged to keep supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia and has supported the formation of Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression and helping Ukraine became a member of NATO.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThe i newspaper cited three sources in the British intelligence services as saying that Russia’s “hybrid” war will increase in the next six months. A fourth source said that the Russia-sponsored cyber-attacks are expected to “hit new levels”. A fifth source warned that “further chaos, further disruption, and further harm” were on the cards if the UK does not work swiftly to become more resilient on national cyber-security.
A sixth source told the paper that the NHS attack was “just a tester” and the UK is not “just isn’t ready” for large-scale cyber-attacks.
“Departments are not co-ordinated and we have no central department other than the Cabinet Office which isn’t equipped to lead and manage. The UK doesn’t have the assets or the skills to defend against them,” said this source.
Moreover, the convergence of Russia and China is also an issue that Starmer will have to deal with.
Starmer appears to have recognised the problem. In the Labour Party’s election manifesto, the need for investment in cyber-defence was mentioned and the growing threat of hybrid warfare was flagged. A clear pathway to address these concerns, however, was not mentioned.
The China challenge
The Labour Party has promised that it would conduct an audit of British relationship with China within the first 100 days of the government-formation.
In the recent years, China has emerged as the leading security threat to the United Kingdom — and the West at large. China has been accused of spying within the British parliament, harassing Hong Kong officials in the UK, bugging British vehicles, and chasing MPs critical of Beijing’s policies, and trying to access voters’ data.
At the time, the Chinese belligerence in the South China Sea and hegemonic designs in the Indo-Pacific region are also rising. As fears of an invasion of Taiwan also increase by the day, three British intelligence sources questioned whether the new Labour government has an “effective contingency plan” should China escalate tensions in the region, according to the i newspaper.
“The Government must work to craft an effective programme of confronting China across all strands of its activity, both being carried out on our homeland and abroad,” said another British source to the paper.
Iran and Middle East crises
The war in Ukraine is not the only one raging in the world — and where the UK is a party even if not a co-belligerent.
The ongoing Israel-Hamas War, the humanitarian crises in the Gaza Strip, and the escalating tensions in the Middle East —fuelled by Iran that’s at the threshold of becoming a nuclear-armed state— pose a grave challenge to the UK and Starmer’s new government.
The challenge is higher as Starmer has to mount an outreach to the British Muslims who have punished the party over Starmer’s stand on Middle East. Starmer will have to accommodate domestic political compulsions and British national interests.
Along with the US Navy and Air Force, the British forces have been central to operations against the Houthis in the Middle East since last year. The British forces were also part of the defence of Israel in May when Iran launched hundreds of missiles, drones, and rockets at Israel in an unprecedented attack.
As a nuclear threshold state, Iran is more belligerent as ever and, along with allies, the new British government will have to find a way to deal with it.
‘Trump-proofing’ NATO & UK’s security & foreign policies
A major challenge of Starmer —and fellow European leaders— will be to ‘Trump-proof’ NATO and prepare security and foreign policies such that they are protected against uncertainties of the United States.
‘Trump-proofing’ refers to the idea of ensuring NATO remains functional and European countries remain protected even if former US President Donald Trump wins later this year and embarks on an isolationist foreign policy. Trump has said that he could cut aid to Ukraine and not support NATO if fellow member-states don’t fund the alliance as per his satisfaction. He has said that he would “encourage” Russia to do “do whatever the hell they want” with NATO members if they don’t spend as per his satisfaction.
Trump has also said he would strike deals with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and it any agreement with Russia or China is bound to come at the expense of European partners. Starmer will have the challenge to protect British interests in case Trump wins and pursues such an unpredictable and erratic policies.
“We are in a completely different era of global instability. Starmer will need to quickly assert himself as a statesman, ready to make moves on the world’s chess board,” said an intelligence source to the i newspaper.
Previously, another source in the British intelligence had described the second Trump term as “the biggest threat to UK security”.