EU, US close to trade agreement as Trump, von der Leyen set for Scotland talks

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with US President Donald Trump in Scotland on Sunday, after EU officials and diplomats indicated they expected to clinch a basic trade agreement this weekend.

The deal would most likely contain a 15% baseline tax on all EU products entering the United States, as well as a 50% duty on European steel and aluminium, according to officials and diplomats.

“Following a good call with @POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong,” von der Leyen said in a post on X.

Following a good call with @POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong.

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) July 25, 2025

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Trump on Friday said there was a 50-50 chance or perhaps less that the US would reach a trade agreement with the European Union, adding that Brussels wanted to “make a deal very badly”.

“We are close to an agreement and it is possible we will reach it during the weekend,” one senior EU official said.

Trump will visit his golf courses in Scotland and meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday.

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European luxury and auto shares - two of the sectors most exposed to tariffs along with wine and spirits - rose, with LVMH and Europe’s largest car manufacturer Volkswagen closing up around 4% and 3%, respectively, the biggest gainers.

Combining goods, services and investment, the EU and the United States are each other’s largest trading partners by far. The American Chamber of Commerce in Brussels warned in March that any conflict jeopardised $9.5 trillion of business in the world’s most important commercial relationship.

The EU is facing US tariffs on more than 70% of its exports - 50% on steel and aluminium, 25% on cars and car parts and a 10% levy on most other goods, which US President Donald Trump has said he would hike to 30% on August 1, a level EU officials said would wipe out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce.

Further tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals are also looming.

The EU has prepared countermeasures that could enter into force on August 7 in the event that talks collapse.

Even if the EU agrees a 15% tariff, avoiding the threat of an even higher one, French car parts supplier OpMobility said it was concerned that the bloc as a whole seemed unable to negotiate better terms than its individual countries.

“In the short term, we can probably say that we’ve avoided the worst, but that does not mean that it’s a good deal, at the end of the day it shows that the relationship is unbalanced,” CEO Laurent Favre said late on Thursday.

Meanwhile, VW’s chief executive Oliver Blume on Friday told investors the carmaker hoped investment commitments could help it win further concessions on US tariffs once Washington and the EU had struck a broad trade deal.