Trump, Putin can make a deal but they can't sell it to Ukrainians and Europeans: Mearsheimer

Prominent American political scientist John Mearsheimer, known for his stark forecasts on the Russia-Ukraine war said that despite high-level diplomatic manoeuvring, the conflict will ultimately be decided on the battlefield rather than at the negotiating table.

Mearsheimer argued that US President Donald Trump who has opened channels with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will find himself unable to bridge the gulf between Moscow and Kyiv.

“The two countries are poles apart and no compromise acceptable to both sides is in sight,” he said, stressing that Trump’s personal diplomacy cannot substitute for hard military realities.

His remarks follow fresh attempts by Trump to position Washington as a guarantor of Ukraine’s security. Recently, Trump’s public commitment at a White House summit to some form of security guarantee for Ukraine was welcomed by European leaders and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte even hailed it as a “breakthrough,” though officials acknowledged that the details of such guarantees remain .

Russia says Ukraine ’not interested’ in long-term peace

Russia, meanwhile, dismissed Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees as proof it was not interested in a long-term settlement. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that Kyiv’s demands were “absolutely unacceptable” and warned that any presence of European troops in Ukraine would be treated as direct foreign intervention.

“The Ukrainian regime and its representatives comment on the current situation in a very specific way, directly showing that they are not interested in a sustainable, fair, long-term settlement,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a press conference.

Lavrov also said any presence of European troops in Ukraine would be “absolutely unacceptable”, as Kyiv’s allies worked on security guarantees for the country.

“This would be absolutely unacceptable for the Russian Federation,” Lavrov said in response to a journalist’s question about security guarantees for Ukraine, calling them “foreign intervention in some part of Ukrainian territory."

Ukrainian President Zelensky countered by accusing Moscow of dodging serious negotiations. In his nightly address, he said Russia was “trying to avoid the necessity to meet” and did not want to bring the war to an end.

Mearsheimer’s analysis cuts through these competing narratives. Even if Trump and Putin could arrive at a deal, he argued, such an agreement would face insurmountable resistance among Ukrainians unwilling to cede sovereignty and among Europeans deeply wary of rewarding Russian aggression. “Any deal struck over their heads would be politically impossible to sell,” he said.

Zelenskyy says Russia trying to avoid leaders meeting

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday accused Russia of avoiding the “necessity” of holding a meeting between the two countries’ leaders despite US-led efforts to arrange such summit to try to end the war.

“Current signals from Russia are, to be honest, indecent. They’re trying to avoid the necessity to meet. They don’t want to end this war,” Zelensky said in his evening address published on social media.

With both sides entrenched and outside powers divided over how far to go in underwriting Kyiv’s security, the war appears set to grind on. For Mearsheimer, the trajectory is clear: the final settlement will be determined not by summits or security pledges but by the balance of forces on the battlefield.

With inputs from agencies