Trump paused tariffs but inflation-weary Americans still fear recession is coming, says survey

US President Donald Trump may have paused most of the tariffs for 90 days and granted electronics waiver, but most Americans are not convinced.

A CBS News/YouGov survey conducted on April 8-11 found that the vast majority of Americans believe tariffs will raise prices in the short term and nearly half of Americans believe that Trump’s policies have made them worse off.

Since assuming office in January, Trump has pursued an erratic economic and trade policies centred around tariffs and coercion. So far, Trump has slapped 25 per cent sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium, and automobiles, and 25 per cent country-specific tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 145 per cent tariffs on China in multiple tranches. He has slapped 10 per cent tariffs on all countries and higher tariffs on a select group of countries.

However, last week, Trump paused those higher tariffs for 90 days and granted waiver for the imports of electronics like computer and smartphones. While markets plunged across the world for weeks as Trump announced higher-than-anticipated tariffs,

Americans unhappy with Trump’s policies, finds survey

The CBS/YouGov survey found that 75 per cent Americans believe that prices are going to rise in the short term as a result of Trump’s tariffs.

In the short term, 65 per cent Americans believe the economy will be worse off in the short term and 42 per cent believe it will be worse in the long term as well.

Tariffs are widely expected to raise prices as importers will pass on the increased costs to the consumers. Contrary to what Trump has peddled, foreign countries don’t pay tariffs. Importers pay tariffs to the US government and they almost always pass on the increased costs to consumers.

One area where Americans appear to side with Trump is in manufacturing as 49 per cent people believe that the tariff policy will add manufacturing jobs.

However, the majority opinion appears to be that Trump is pursuing the right goals but has the wrong approach: 51 per cent Americans like his goals but 63 per cent dislike his approach.

Moreover, most Americans at 59 per cent believe that tariffs are not an endgame but a negotiating tool.

US economy not out of woods despite tariffs’ pause, say economists

Even though markets have breathed a sigh of relief for now after Trump’s 90-day pause and waiver for electronics, economists maintain that the US economy is not out of the woods.

Ever since Trump embarked on his topsy-turvy trade policy that has changed almost every other day, economists have warned that the United States has a high risk of falling into a recession or worse stagflation as a result of Trump’s policies. While some economists reduced odds of a recession after Trump’s pause in tariffs, they maintain the economy is not yet out of the woods.

Even after a downward revision, Goldman Sachs still sees 45 per cent recession odds.

On the other hand, Moody’s still maintains recession odds at 60 per cent.

Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi has said that he would not take much solace in the 90-day pause “as the global trade war continues to rage”.

Zandi said that 10 per cent universal tariffs, high tariffs on China, and sectoral tariffs ensure that the effective tariff rate is over 20 per cent and the way policy “is being made up on the fly, it generates lots of drama and uncertainty, which is another heavy weight on the economy”.

Zandi further said, “The most worrisome aspect is the volatility in the bond markets. Long-term rates have jumped. Historically, when there is a crisis, money flows into the US. We are money good — the AAA credit. Not this time. Global investors may be losing faith in the US If we are no longer the global safe haven, it will cost us dearly.”

In a post on X, Prof. Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, said it was a mistake to say that ‘Tariffmageddon’ is over.

“The US will still have the highest tariffs in the industrialised world, perhaps 10-20 times that of most of our trading partners and roughly 10 times higher than it was before. These are still at or above the Depression-era Smoot-Hawley tariffs,” said Wolfers.