Trump orders ‘new’ census amid redistricting row, directs officials to use 2024 election data

President Donald Trump has intensified the battle over congressional redistricting by ordering the Commerce Department to carry out a fresh national census year ahead of the next scheduled count in 2030 and to exclude undocumented immigrants from the tally.

The surprise directive, announced Thursday on Trump’s Truth Social account, seeks to bypass the next regular census set for 2030. Trump said the new count would be used to reshape congressional representation, sparking fierce debate over both its legality and its political impact.

The Constitution’s 14th Amendment mandates that apportionment be based on “the whole number of persons” in each state, a provision that has historically included non-citizens regardless of immigration status.

This is not Trump’s first attempt to reshape the census. In 2020, during his first term, he issued a memorandum instructing officials to exclude undocumented immigrants from the apportionment count. That effort was blocked by legal challenges and later rescinded by President Joe Biden.

Trump’s renewed push comes amid a broader Republican strategy to secure political advantage before next year’s midterm elections. The president has already urged GOP lawmakers in Texas to approve new district maps that could yield five additional House seats for the party. Strategists say the census proposal is a bold attempt to “reset the rules” of political competition.

“This is Trump pushing the envelope,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Many Americans don’t realise that undocumented immigrants are counted toward a state’s representation in the House and Electoral College. Highlighting that could be a powerful message.”

Some Republicans acknowledge the plan could cost red states like Texas and Florida seats if undocumented immigrants were excluded from the count but they argue it would remove more seats from heavily Democratic states such as California, New York and Illinois.

Critics warn the move could deepen partisan conflict. A GOP source familiar with the strategy called the current situation an “arms race” in redistricting, arguing Democrats have already maximised gerrymandering advantages in states they control. “Democrats are panicking because they’ve already squeezed all the juice from the lemon,” the Hill reported quoting sources as saying.

Legal and logistical challenges loom large. James Thurber, a political science professor at American University, said identifying and excluding millions of undocumented immigrants before the midterms would be nearly impossible. He noted that a 2018 legal battle over adding a citizenship question to the census dragged on for a year before the Supreme Court struck it down. “There’s simply not enough time,” he said.

Even without implementation, analysts say Trump’s move could influence political behaviour, possibly discouraging some immigrants, even those here legally, from engaging with government or voting.

Democrats dismissed the proposal as unconstitutional and impractical, calling it a political stunt aimed at pressuring Republican governors into approving aggressive gerrymanders. Democratic strategist Jared Leopold said it fits into a pattern of Trump “playing to his base” but risks alienating broader swaths of voters.

“It reinforces the image of a president out of step with most Americans,” Leopold said. “It may not be the top reason voters turn against him in the midterms, but it adds to the B-side of the record.”

The US has rarely seen mid-decade nationwide redistricting fights. Thurber said if Trump’s push sparks such a scenario, “it will be unique, historic and something to watch.”

For now, Trump’s order sets the stage for an unprecedented legal and political battle, one that could redefine the rules of representation before most Americans even realize the census is back in play.