Trouble for Nawaz Sharif, is Pakistan facing its fourth coup?

Pakistan is in the throes of its worst political unrest in years, which if not managed astutely, may create conditions for the country’s fourth coup. Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who ironically was the victim of the country’s third and last military coup in 1999, is ironically faced with his biggest political challenge, perhaps even an existentialist threat. Sharif’s latest bug bears, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan and Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) leader Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri, would be descending on Islamabad on Friday with their thousands of supporters for beginning their sit-in against the Sharif government. This is virtually going to be Pakistan’s moment of Cairo’s Tahrir Square in 2011.[caption id=“attachment_1665969” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] Supporters of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) party gather at the entrance of the rally venue in Islamabad on 15 August 2014. AFP[/caption] The two leaders have publicly distanced themselves from the Pakistan Army saying that the powerful army has nothing to do with their agitation. But the suspicion is that the army is egging them on, though no one knows if the army is helping them in any way. Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned politician, has made it clear that his current protest would end only after Sharif’s resignation. He is peeved over last year’s general elections in Pakistan and has accused Sharif and his party of massive rigging. Sharif came up with a rare televised address to the nation on 12 August evening and asked the Supreme Court to set up a three-member judicial commission to probe the rigging charges. But Khan is unrelenting. His clear-cut demand is this: “First the prime minister and members of the Election Commission should step down and then a judicial commission should be formed.” Qadri, the Canada-based Pakistani politician and Islamic scholar who was seen as Pakistan’s Anna Hazare, has gone a step beyond. He has dubbed his protests as “a revolution” – Anna style – and wants Sharif’s immediate resignation and setting up of a national government to manage the country’s affairs till a regular arrangement is in place. Pakistan had faced potent threats of a military coup in 2012. That was the time when Asif Ali Zardari was the president and Yusuf Raza Gilani was the prime minister. The Zardari government’s relations with the army had touched an all time low and the situation was aggravated in January 2012 when Gilani had sacked defence secretary Naeem Khalid Lodhi, a retired General, for his alleged role in hatching a coup plot against the civilian government. That was the time when the judiciary was fiercely independent and pro-active, the federal government was weak and the national economy in tailspin. The feared coup eventually did not take place. Perhaps the reason was that the all-round situation in Pakistan was so bad that the Pakistan Army, supposed to be the ultimate savior of Pakistan, did not want to take over the reins of the country amid such a mess. Pakistan’s situation is no different today and all the factors mentioned above are still applicable. But there are a few differences which may perhaps prove to be crucial in whether Pakistan is facing its fourth coup – a military coup or a people’s coup (Pakistan’s Arab Spring!). If Pakistan did not have a military coup in 2012 that was largely because of the then army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who held the country’s most powerful position from 29 November 2007 to 29 November 2013. Kayani lived up to his image of being apolitical and not hungry for power, unlike his predecessor General Pervez Musharraf. But the same thing cannot be said about the present army chief General Raheel Sharif. Only time will tell whether Gen Sharif has political ambitions or not. Secondly, in 2012 the two major opposition parties openly campaigned against the army wading into the political crisis and seizing the control of the nation yet again. This time, the two Pakistani politicians waging war against the Sharif government on the streets of Pakistan, are seen as being encouraged by the army. Pakistan today is on the crossroads, in a political tailspin. From India’s point of view what should matter most is not whether Sharif survives or not but the real intent of Pakistan Army. After all, while such a humongous political unrest is unfolding in Pakistan, the Pakistan army is still engaged in provocative firing at the Line of Control and International Border. Even a day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s barbs against Pakistan in Leh, the Pakistan Army came up with yet another ceasefire violation. The writer is Firstpost Consulting Editor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.