The tipping point? After Udhampur, Gurdaspur attacks, Pakistan may crackdown on Hafiz Saeed

The recent terror attacks on Indian soil by Pakistan-backed terrorist is no new phenomenon.  From the killings in Samba, the attack in Gurdaspur attack or the latest firing in Udhampur, all saw the involvement of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), a terror outfit which is the virtual surrogate of the Pakistani military establishment. Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorism for so long that it has truly become an expert in the export of violence. While Pakistan’s economy is in doldrums with no profitable trade and business to bring the country out of its current economic woes, the only business that has been always thriving in Pakistan has been the one of spreading terror. Pakistan has been facing extreme international pressure, particularly from the US, which has been meeting its requirements of finance and weapons for quite some time now. While the US tries its best to turn a blind eye to the undeniable evidence that India provided to substantiate its claim that Pakistan sponsors terror in India, it won’t be able to indefinitely maintain silence given the close ties it has with India. [caption id=“attachment_2382682” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI image[/caption] The current Indo-US bonhomie and the extent to which Pakistan has exploited the American patience has seen some unimaginable changes in Pakistan’s position vis-à-vis terrorism.  For many years, Pakistan has claimed to be a victim of terrorism, while at the same time leaving no stone unturned to foment violence. However, this trend seems to have now made the Pakistan army and the ISI, which have been literally ruling the country, realise that the terrorism that they have so nurtured so carefully is proving to be a disaster. This has resulted in certain developments which, while being done in the interest of Pakistan, are going to benefit the region as a whole. When we look back, from 2011 onwards to the present day, there have been some compelling events which clearly prove that while Pakistan has not shown any inclination to deviate from its agenda to “bleed India with a thousand cuts”, it seems to have unwillingly, and obviously under US pressure, done its bit in ensuring that top leaders of various terrorists outfits sheltered in Pakistan are eliminated. The beginning of this involuntary exercise was in 2011, which saw the end of al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, who was killed by US marines in Abottabad in Pakistan. The killing took place just a stone’s throw away from Pakistan Army cantonment leaving the world to speculate whether or not Pakistan army was in the know of this operation with a number of interesting versions emerging. Following Osama bin Laden’s death, Ayman-al-Zawahiri was declared the chief of al Qaeda. However, there are inputs to suggest that Zawahiri is not alive any more. The fact that nothing has been heard from him in the last year or so only adds credence to the information. A couple of years later reports emanated of the end of Mullah Omar, the Taliban supremo. While then there was no confirmation from any reliable quarter about this information, recently Afghanistan came out with a startling disclosure that Mullah Omar had died in a hospital in Karachi two years ago due to illness.  Pakistan had been denying the presence of Mullah Omar in the country all these years. This development is seen by experts as a serious blow to the morale of the Taliban cadres, with the world now being witness to the infighting for the positions of leadership. Ultimately, Mullah Mansour was picked to be the leader of Taliban. But following disagreements between Mullah Omar’s son, Mullah Yakub, and Mullah Mansour, there are now reports from reliable sources that Yakub has been killed, though that hasn’t been confirmed. Another violent outfit Lashkar-e-Jhangvi recently saw its leader Malik Ishaq and two of his sons being killed in Pakistan. Malik Ishaq has been notorious for staging planned attacks on Shias, who are in the minority in Pakistan. He was known to be a sworn anti-Shia campaigner. It is very important to identify the pattern in the elimination of leaders of various terror outfits right from Osama bin Laden to Malik Ishaq. All these high-ranking leaders were eliminated under mysterious circumstances with nothing clear emerging on the details leading to their death. A pattern is emerging, and there could be some good news for India in the near future from Pakistan on the terror front. The next purveyor of terror in line could be Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed, who, as the world knows, is still politically active and is also a wanted criminal by the US. Along with him could also be Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi.  There are possibilities that they could meet the same fate as the others and inter-outfit rivalry be cited as the reason for it.  This speculation gains credence from the fact that they have been causing extreme embarrassment to the government of Pakistan. Given the pressure Pakistanis is facing on the global stage to be declared a failed and a terror state, this assessment may not prove to be too far-fetched. From India’s point of view, it can only hope that good sense prevails over Pakistan leading to it handing over Dawood Ibrahim, who has also been an embarrassment to the Pakistan government. Ibrahim could ultimately be evaluated as being of less value for Pakistan by virtue of his being an Indian.