The curious case of Russia’s unease and muted response to Trump’s Maduro move in Venezuela

Russia’s response to Donald Trump’s sudden action against Nicolas Maduro has been notably muted, revealing unease beneath official condemnation. A swift overnight raid in Caracas removed a long-time Kremlin ally, followed by Washington’s announcement that it would rule Venezuela for an indefinite period. The speed and decisiveness unsettled Moscow.

The sequence echoed how Vladimir Putin envisaged Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A surprise strike. Rapid control. A quick end. Instead, that vision failed in Ukraine. It was Trump who executed it in Venezuela. The operation has been condemned by many as illegal. Maduro now faces trial in New York.

Public anger or private admiration

In public, Russian officials denounced the raid as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Beyond the rhetoric, pro-Kremlin voices showed grudging respect. Some even expressed envy at an operation Moscow once imagined but failed to deliver, undone by intelligence blunders and Ukraine’s resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora, which has close ties to the Russian military.

“Most likely, this is exactly how our ‘special military operation’ was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years,” it added, referring to Russia’s chief of the general staff.

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Soul-searching among pro-war voices

Such remarks have fed reflection within pro-war circles. Some have openly questioned how a promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine became a long and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, a pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” at how brazen the US intervention appeared.

“In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own ‘special military operation,’” she wrote.

Margarita Simonyan, Russia’s chief propagandist and the head of RT, also commented on Telegram, saying Moscow had reason to “be jealous”.

Allies weaken as limits show

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to build a network of anti-American allies, from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran, to shape a counterweight to Washington.

Despite Russia’s foreign minister pledging support for Maduro’s regime as recently as late December, few analysts expected meaningful help from Moscow.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has over the past year watched other key allies fall or weaken sharply, from Bashar al-Assad in Syria to an increasingly weakened Iran. The trend has exposed the limits of the Kremlin’s reach.

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“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, a foreign policy expert who advises the Kremlin.
“Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to express outrage at US actions. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant, and operating in a fundamentally different geopolitical reality, is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

There is also a practical calculation. Analysts say Ukraine remains Putin’s priority. Maintaining a workable relationship with Trump on that front outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin’s sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov said.