Territorial concessions, no Nato seat for Ukraine in Trump's 'truce within 24-hr' plan

Advisers to US President-elect Donald Trump have fleshed out three plans to end the war in Ukraine, according to a report.

While Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine at the earliest after assuming office, within 24 hours in his own words, he has not yet endorsed any plan.

In the only instance where Trump appeared to outline an approach to end the war in Ukraine, he last year said that he would use his relationships with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to bring them to the negotiating table and use military assistance as a leverage.

“I know Zelenskyy very well and I know Putin very well — even better. And I had a good relationship — very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, ’no more [assistance]. You got to make a deal’. I would tell Putin, ‘if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to’. I will have the deal done in one day — one day,” said Trump in an interview with Fox News.

Now, Reuters has reported that at least three plans have been floated in Trump’s circle to end the war in Ukraine.

A former Trump national security official involved in the transition told the news agency three proposals include one by Lieutenant General (Retired) Keith Kellogg, whom Trump has named as his envoy to Ukraine; one by incoming Vice President JD Vance; and another by Richard Grenell, Trump’s former acting intelligence chief who is believed to be a key informal adviser to him on European matters.

Even though the plans have differences, they broadly include Ukraine’s concession of territories, giving up the idea of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), and a carrot and sticks approach.

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Lt Gen Kellogg’s plan

Kellog has authored a plan to end the war in Ukraine with former National Security Council (NSC) official Fred Fleitz, according to Reuters.

The news agency reported that the plan involves freezing the current battle lines. It further said that the plan has been presented to Trump.

Under the plan, Trump would supply more US weapons to Ukraine only if it agreed to peace talks and would warn Russia that he would increase US military assistance to Ukraine if Russia refused to join peace talks, according to the agency.

It further reported that the plan puts Nato membership for Ukraine on hold.

Instead, Ukraine would be offered US security guarantees, which would including more weapon supplies once a peal deal is signed, according to the agency.

JD Vance’s plan

Similar to Kellogg, Vance’s plan also includes freezing current battle lines.

In a conversation with podcaster Shawn Ryan, Vance said that Russia would retain the Ukrainian land it has captured and a demilitarised zone would be established along the current battle lines. He said that the Ukrainian side of the demilitarised zone would be heavily fortified to prevent Russian incursions.

Vance said that the remainder of Ukraine would remain a sovereign state but would not be part of Nato or similar groupings, in an apparent reference to the European Union (EU).

“It doesn’t join Nato. It doesn’t join some of these sort of allied institutions. I think that’s ultimately what this looks like,” said Vance.

Grenell’s plan to end Ukraine War

In July, Grenell, who served as the envoy to Germany during Trump’s first term, called for the creation of “autonomous zones” in eastern Ukraine in July.

Grenell also said that Nato membership of Ukraine was not in the interest of the United States.

Even though Grenell has not been named as being part of the incoming administration, a senior Trump foreign policy advisor told Reuters that he has the president-elect’s ear on European matters.

The source further said that Grenell was one of the persons part of the meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy in September.

Favourable plans for Putin

All three plans floated in the Trump’s circles appear to be in line with Putin’s vision for the end of the war.

Putin has also sought to maximise his gains inside Ukraine before freezing off the battle lines in lieu of Ukraine not joining any Western bloc.

Trump has long been believed to be friendly with Russia and it has long been feared that he would force Ukraine into making a deal favourable to Putin owing to his isolationist streak and longstanding fawning outlook for the Russian leader.

Currently, Russia controls all of Crimea which it annexed in 2014. It controls nearly 80 per cent of Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, comprising of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, according to Reuters.

The news agency further reported that Russia also controls around 70 per cent of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces and a chunk of the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv regions as well.

Previously, it has been reported that Russia has recaptured up to 40 per cent of the territories that Ukraine had captured in Kursk province.