 "Sudanese attend a protest in support of the army in the eastern city of Gedaref on February 22, 2025. Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a war between the forces of army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, who commands the RSF. - AFP")
Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and its allies have agreed to form a parallel government, they said Sunday, despite warnings such a move could further fragment the war-ravaged country.
The parties involved in the agreement finalised privately in Nairobi. They said that the charter aims to create a “government of peace and unity” in rebel-held regions of the northeast African nation.
This development follows nearly two years of a brutal conflict with the national army, which has displaced over 12 million people and triggered what the United Nations describes as the world’s largest hunger and displacement crisis.
A key signatory to the agreement is a faction of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu, which governs parts of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in the country’s south.
The U.N. last week said that throughout 2024, its human rights office documented more than 4,200 civilian killings, adding that the total number is likely much higher.
Sudan’s military has gained the upper hand in the conflict as the RSF suffered multiple blows, including losing control of the city of Wad Medani, the capital of Gezira province, and other areas in the province. The Sudanese military also regained control of the country’s largest oil refinery.
The RSF appears to have lost control of the Greater Khartoum area and the cities of Omdurman and Khartoum Bahri.
War-torn country teeters on fragmentation
The war, originally triggered by disputes over integrating the RSF into the military, has killed tens of thousands, with both sides accused of atrocities.
Last month, the United States determined the RSF had committed genocide in the western region of Darfur.
Impact Shorts
View AllThe conflict has torn Sudan in two, with the army controlling the north and east and the RSF holding nearly all of Darfur and swathes of the south.
The army is currently on the verge of recapturing the capital Khartoum, after surging through central Sudan and regaining territory this year.
At a news conference in Cairo on Sunday, the foreign minister for the army-aligned government, Ali Youssef, said it would not accept “any other country recognising what is called a parallel government”.
In its alliance with the SPLM-N, the RSF side now controls more of the south and has border access to Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan and Ethiopia.
A spokesman for UN chief Antonio Guterres warned the move could “increase the fragmentation of the country and risk making this crisis even worse”.
But the charter’s signatories denied any intentions to divide the country.
Alaa El-Din Nuqd, a signatory representing professional unions, said the proposed government would benefit people in RSF-held areas “who have been cut off from essential services”.
Nuqd said the charter was a step toward “protecting the dignity” of war-hit civilians.
Analysts skeptical of RSF’s bid for international recognition
Analysts say the move is aimed at strengthening the RSF after their recent battlefield setbacks.
Sudanese political analyst Kholood Khair said the RSF’s ultimate goals were to acquire an air force, facilitate humanitarian aid to areas under its control and secure a stronger negotiation position.
“They want to go into mediations as a government, not a militia,” she told AFP.
However, any arms sales to the potential government would still be in violation of a Darfur embargo which the United Nations has recommended expanding to cover all of Sudan.
“Ultimately, it is hard to see this move gaining traction with anyone except the most ardent supporters of the RSF,” said Cameron Hudson, senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
The move “looks like an effort to achieve politically that which the RSF cannot achieve on the battlefield”, he told AFP.
In the near term, he added, the new government would “further divide the Sudanese people and perhaps even the wider region as some communities and countries might chose to back this new government”.
Kenya’s hosting of the signing has drawn sharp criticism from Sudan’s army-aligned government which recalled its ambassador from Nairobi on Thursday in protest.
The foreign ministry accused Kenyan President William Ruto of acting on “his commercial and personal interests with the militia’s regional sponsors”.
In mid-January, Kenya and the United Arab Emirates signed an economic agreement, which they called a “historic milestone in economic relations between the two nations”.
The UAE has repeatedly been accused by both the UN and the United States of supplying weapons to the RSF – claims that Abu Dhabi denies.
With inputs from agencies