Stunned by MDP's treachery, India in no hurry to bail out Nasheed

Maldives is in a tailspin. Not much surprising because the Maldivian polity has been in a tailspin for several years in the recent past. What is surprising is that the Indian response has been rather tepid and the change of government in New Delhi has not changed India’s response. The Indian response vis a vis Maldives has remained by and large the same. India was and continues to be in a wait and watch mode over the last half decade as far as the Maldives’ political situation is concerned. The latest example of the Indian response towards Maldives is reflected by New Delhi ’s response to the evolving Maldivian apolitical situation. Or shall we call it India’s subdued response as the Maldives polity continues to pose newer challenges to India by the day? The latest red rag to India was waved from Maldives a few days ago when the governmentest of president Yameen overnight changed the political game and cancelled Nasheed’s house arrest and shifted his back to jail. [caption id=“attachment_2413204” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Nasheed. PTI[/caption] The Yameen government took this major step and changed Nasheed’s prisoner status. Incidentally, it did the same with the former Maldivian defence minister too. Both leaders have been booked for no less charges than terrorism. The most obvious question in this context is where does it place India? Whether India was consulted or at least told about the impending political moves by the Yameen government? This writer understands that the Indian reaction about Nasheed’s re-arrest is finally being readied and may be released very soon. The Indian reaction is likely to be in the standard format wherein India is going to express its concern over Nasheed’s re-arrest and urge all stakeholders to maintain calm. But the situation in Maldives has gone far beyond issuing statements of concern. Statements alone are not going to be enough. Here is a country which has just passed a legislation allowing foreigners to purchase Maldivian territory, a move aimed at helping China and allowing Asia’s number one and the world’s number two economy to spread its wings further in this Indian Ocean country. Indian foreign secretary S. Jaishankar had visited Maldives earlier this month and expressed concern over the Maldivian government’s recent constitutional amendment legislation. Before that Jaishankar had summoned the Maldivian envoy in New Delhi twice to convey the same message. While the Ministry of External Affairs did not give any read out about Jaishankar’s Maldives visit, it is understood that his interlocutors in Maldives assured him that the indian strategic interests won’t be compromised. This brings us back to the Nasheed episode. The fact that India has not come up with even a murmur of protest against Nasheed’s re-arrest is suggestive of behind the scenes diplomacy. The question is whether India has entered into some kind of political deal with the Yameen government and whether India has decided to look away from the Nasheed episode and opted for doing business with whosoever is in power in Maldives. One thing seems to be clear. The Indian government is not much too happy with Nasheed and his Maldives Democratic Party after it voted for the Yameen government’s constitution amendment legislation empowering foreign countries (read China) to buy land in Maldives. This is one reason why India has not made much noise over Nasheed’s re-arrest. Moreover, India doesn’t want to be seen interfering in Maldives’ internal politics. Political developments in Maldives also have an important lesson for Nasheed and his MDP that pro-China actions won’t be tolerated. This writer is given to understand that important MDP leaders, particularly Nasherd’s wife, have been trying hard to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi but he has not given them an appointment as yet. The message for the MDP is clear: If you can’t be with us then we too are not much bothered. Nasheed’s party must have thought that by siding with the government over the constitution amendment legislation it would be able to purchase with the government and secure the release of Nasheed and the eventual Presidential pardon. But nothing of that sort happened and Nasheed continues to be in the snake pit. Clearly,India is keeping all Maldivian stakeholders guessing.