Strange explosion on President Yameen's boat is a wake-up call for Maldives

Sunday’s mysterious explosion on a boat carrying Maldives President Yameen Abdulla, who escaped unscathed, may just be a warning shot or an all-out act of terror, but we don’t know yet. Interestingly, the Yameen government asked the US to help in the investigation — not India, or any other neighbour. Whatever the result of the probe, one thing is certain. All is not well with this Indian Ocean island nation, popular as a tourist destination but now being eyed by jihadists as this Saarc country has a nearly 100 percent Muslim population. However, it didn’t require an explosion aboard the presidential boat to raise concerns about about the rising interest of terror outfits in the Maldives. The worrying signs on the terror front have dramatically increased since the Yameen government took over after ensuring the defeat of predecessor Mohammed Nasheed in a controversial election two years ago. Sushant Sarin, a noted strategic analyst, says Maldives has for many years been the favoured hub of Pakistan-based terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), but now the situation is all the more serious as Islamic State (IS) is making inroads in this country. “IS has had recruits from many countries in our region, including India, but the percentage of IS recruitment in terms of population is very high in case of Maldives. In India’s case, this percentage is not even miniscule,” Sarin said. [caption id=“attachment_2452004” align=“alignleft” width=“379”]  Maldives President Yameen Abdulla. AFP[/caption] My take is that a radicalised Maldives has serious implications for the region, and more specifically for the Indian Ocean which is today one of the key sea lanes of communication, and perhaps in the years to come, one of the most contested maritime domains. Maldives sits at a critical location in the vast ocean and if it was to become a hub for radicals, it could pose a serious threat to the seamless transport and communication lanes offered by the ocean. A radicalised Maldives will attract extremist and terrorist groups that are expanding their areas of operation beyond West Asia and parts of South Asia. The possibility of global terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and IS gaining ground in the Maldives is already high. The Al-Qaeda had a presence in the island nation for quite some time and the group could use the ‘favourable’ climate there to turn it into a sanctuary. This could serve as a refuge to recoup and regroup, as well as escape closer scrutiny and international action. The IS has also found supporters among the radicalised youths of the Maldives. The island nation has had rallies and social media outreach activities promoting IS. There is now a growing fear that both Al-Qaeda and the IS could expand their respective footprints in the island nation to establish a new front against the West. Terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda have in the past made several attempts to exploit the maritime domain to expand their agenda of terrorism. The USS Cole attack by Al-Qaeda and the 2008 Mumbai attack by the LeT are two significant pointers. Several African terrorist groups like Al-Shabab have been targeting commercial shipping lanes for several years with varying success. Somali pirates, often hand-in-glove with terrorist groups, also had some success in posing a security challenge to maritime trade and transit in the region. Although bigger groups like Al-Qaeda and IS had limited success in exploiting the maritime domain, the possibility of these groups acquiring a greater interest in finding a foothold in the Indian Ocean cannot be discounted completely. What needs to be remembered is the fairly large naval asset created by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the 1990s in Sri Lanka. An equally significant threat is the use of the Maldives by terrorist groups to launch attacks against other regional countries, specifically India. In the past, LeT for instance, has used the Maldives as a transit to make possible inroads into India. Although the LeT could not achieve much success for various reasons, groups like IS with enormous resources and expertise could do the same with greater success. A radicalised Maldives could also act as a beacon for terrorist groups to create a terrorist sanctuary in the Indian Ocean which, if and when realised, could become one of the most serious terror challenges the world has faced. The Maldives cannot be allowed to slip into the hands of extremist groups and become a terror sanctuary in the years ahead. The impact on global security and trade will be immeasurable if the Maldives becomes another Afghanistan, Iraq or Pakistan.