 "Lee Jae-myung (2nd R), the presidential candidate for South Korea's Democratic Party, casts his early vote for the upcoming presidential election at a polling station in Seoul as the Presedential elections on May 29, 2025. AFP")
Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is expected to win South Korea’s snap presidential election , according to recent surveys reflecting the mood in the East Asian nation amid ongoing voting on Tuesday (3 June).
If Lee wins, the election could shift Seoul’s foreign policy from a pro-US-Japan axis, and could inch towards closer ties with China.
Lee’s victory could shape the Asian dynamics
His victory may also influence South Korea’s position on key issues such as relations with China, nuclear weapons, and North Korea, potentially altering the direction of a key US ally.
Pro-US President Yoon and his impeachment
Former President Yoon Suk-yeol, a conservative who was removed from office after attempting to declare martial law in December, had taken a strong pro-US line. He also received strong backing from Washington, adopted a tough stance on North Korea, and worked to improve ties with Japan.
Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has often criticised South Korea’s close alignment with the US. He has pledged to resume dialogue with North Korea and rejected Yoon’s efforts at rapprochement with Japan.
S Korea should avoid involvement in China-Taiwan conflict: Lee
During the campaign, Lee made headlines by saying South Korea should avoid involvement in any potential China-Taiwan conflict, though he later clarified he is not pro-China.
Later, Lee softens stance on US
In a bid to attract moderate voters, Lee has recently softened his rhetoric. He now voices support for the US alliance and says he will continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the US—an alignment Washington views as vital for countering threats from China and North Korea.
This comes at a time when US President Donald Trump is drawing global attention with his tariff threats and foreign policy moves.
Trump-Lee clash coming?
It remains to be seen if Lee will stick to his new positions, and how they might clash with Trump, who has imposed tariffs on South Korea, demanded more payment for the 28,500 US troops there.