Senegal election crisis shakes support for Macky Sall’s coalition

In the last two elections, author Moustapha Gueye supported Macky Sall, the president of Senegal.

Gueye’s loyalty to the ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY) coalition has been undermined, though, by unhappiness with Sall’s second term and the president’s botched attempt to delay the next elections.

Seated on a sofa at his Dakar residence, Gueye expressed his sadness about Sall’s presidency culminating in a fierce election battle with the opposition and turmoil that has damaged Senegal’s standing as one of the most stable countries in West Africa.

“These are domestic issues that Senegal should have grown out of,” he said.

Just a few weeks before the election was scheduled to take place in February, Sall made the unexpected decision to postpone it, which stoked widespread suspicions that he was attempting to amend the constitution in order to prolong his rule.

Sall disputes this. It was too late to stick to the original election date, but a court eventually overturned his injunction.

Ousmane Sene, a mechanic, expressed his fatigue at speculating about the ruling party’s motivations.

“The reason I won’t vote for Benno (BBY) anymore is simply that I trusted them, but not anymore. That trust has been betrayed,” he said at his roadside repair shop in a Dakar suburb.

Authorities have still not confirmed a new date for the vote.

As the process grinds on, BBY and Sall will be gauging how the unresolved crisis is swaying other long-time supporters like Gueye and Sene and how it is affecting the chances of their handpicked candidate in the presidential race, Amadou Ba.

‘Total confusion’

Sall cited concerns over potential election disputes as the reason for the delay. But many believe BBY and Sall tried to postpone the vote because they were unsure about their own candidate and wanted time to think.

Sall has publicly stood by Ba. But equally public critics of the candidate include at least two cabinet ministers and senior BBY member Souleymane Jules Diop, who took to the radio in late 2023 to accuse Ba of being bland and uninspiring, local media reported.

“It’s very evident that the election delay would not have taken place if Macky Sall believed that Amadou Ba was clearly capable of winning the presidency,” Tochi Eni-Kalu, Africa analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said.

A 10-month delay could have bought enough time for a reshuffle of the candidate list, but on Feb. 15 a top court ruled that such a postponement would be unlawful and ordered the election be scheduled as soon as possible.

With Ba still on the ticket for now, the crisis may turn out to have been a politically costly miscalculation by Sall and BBY if their electoral manoeuvring has put off many other voters like Gueye and Sene.

With no official public election polls, shifts in voter intention are hard to measure.

But of those who voted for Sall in the last election in 2019, only 60% are believed to be planning to vote for BBY’s candidate this time, said statistician Moubarak Lo who, as adviser to the prime minister, produces strategic analysis for the authorities.

Lo said he thought the estimated fall was less a response to the recent upheaval than a natural drop-off in support over the course of a presidential term.

He cautioned against drawing any conclusions about the election outcome at this stage. “Today, it’s total confusion,” he told Reuters on Feb. 24.

Opposition momentum

All eyes are on whether Sall agrees with a June 2 election date proposed on Tuesday after talks that were boycotted by most of the opposition presidential candidates. Some of them have formed an informal alliance in response to the electoral turmoil.

This closer collaboration could influence the result of the election if it leads to them rallying around a single candidate in a second round in the event no contender secures more than 50% in the first round.

“It’s very clear the momentum is on the opposition side now and that could have a bearing on the election,” Eurasia Group analyst Eni-Kalu said.

“It’s become very obvious that it’s going to be very difficult for Amadou Ba to win outright in the first round,” he added. “A lot depends on what happens in the next few weeks in terms of the opposition closing ranks and presenting a united front ahead of a run-off.”

The electoral turbulence has not deterred all BBY supporters. A pro-BBY rally in Dakar on Feb. 24 attracted hundreds of people, comparable in size to a pro-opposition rally a week earlier.

The crowd chanted and waved Senegalese flags handed out by organisers. One man carried a homemade cardboard sign that said “Macky, Senegal loves you.”

Penda, who gave only her first name, said her support for BBY was unchanged by recent events.

“We are here to show everyone, including the President, that those who love him continue to do so,” she said.