How many Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine? Over 1% male population between 20-50 yrs killed or wounded

Pipping earlier estimates about the number of Russian soldiers killed in combat with Ukraine since the war began in Feb 2022, The Economist has come up with new mind-boggling figures that peg the number of casualties anywhere between 66,000 and 88,000 as of Dec. 31, 2023.

In other words, as the data cited by the report suggests, over 1 per cent of the Russian male population between the ages of 20 and 50 could have been killed in combat with Ukraine or severely wounded since the start of the war.

The Economist landed in this range keeping into account the figures extended by several Western intelligence agencies such as US’ Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the UK Ministry of Defence (UK MoD), the Pentagon etc, apart from earlier estimates by independent Russian media platforms as Mediazona and Meduza.

While the UK MoD thinks close to 70,000 Russian soldiers have died so far, US officials peg this number somewhere near 120,000.

Weekly Data

The weekly data of deaths on the Russian side collated by The Economist shows that the maximum number of soldiers died during the beginning and towards the end of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Another point in time when a lot of Russian soldiers lost their lives was during the campaign in Bakhmut last winter.

According to the report, these data did not include those who were still considered missing or had been badly injured in combat. The report also added that the wounded-to-killed ratio for Russians was lower than for Ukrainians. Calculations based on leaked documents of the US defence department, The Economist pegged the wounded-to-killed ratio for Russians at three to four soldiers wounded for one killed.

The ratio is higher for the Ukrainian side, at six to eight for every one soldier killed in combat.
“The latest death count would imply that somewhere between 290,000 and 460,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by the end of 2023—similar to estimates of Russia’s entire invading force in February 2022,” The Economist added.

Who has died more: Russian regulars or convicts/PMC soldiers? It has long been held that convicts and soldiers serving under private military contractors (such as Wagner) made the bulk of Russian soldiers killed in action.

The Economist has deconstructed this: 25 per cent of those killed are from regular military units, while only 19 per cent have been identified as convicts and just about 6 per cent from the cadre of PMC.

Previous Estimate

Earlier, the names of over 44,000 Russian soldiers who have been killed on the battlefield since the start of the war in February 2022 have been identified by a Russian independent media outlet called Mediazona.

Mediazona along with BBC Russia has added the names of 1,194 Russian soldiers to the list of casualties. The list is now up-to-date since it was last updated in early February.

However, the journalists involved in making the list note that the actual figure of the number of Russian soldiers might be considerably higher. The information has been collated by studying obituaries, social media posts by relatives, news in the media as well as reports by local authorities.

In the list, the names of 15 military personnel holding the ranks of Lieutenant Colonel and higher have been added.