Question after Iran attack: Are Iron Dome, Arrow systems enough to defend Israel?

The barrage of Iranian missiles targeting key locations in Israel, from the Nevatim air base to a restaurant in Tel Aviv, has ignited concerns over the resilience of Israel’s missile defence systems. While the Iron Dome, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems have long been touted as effective shields, the sheer volume, speed and sophistication of Tehran’s latest attacks demand a critical evaluation of Israel’s current air defence capabilities. Are these systems, renowned for their high interception rates, enough to safeguard the nation against an evolving missile threat?

Iran’s escalating missile tactics

Tuesday evening’s missile strikes, which saw approximately 180 Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Israel, represent a significant escalation in Tehran’s military posture. This attack dwarfs previous assaults, such as the April 13 missile strike, both in scale and intensity. According to a report in The Guardian, Iran’s decision to deploy high-speed ballistic missiles, including its advanced Fatteh-2 hypersonic missiles travelling at an estimated 10,000 mph, signals a clear intent: to overwhelm and exhaust Israel’s air defence systems.

Iran’s increasing reliance on ballistic missiles presents unique challenges. These weapons are difficult to intercept due to their speed, trajectory and payload potential. Pentagon spokesperson Maj Gen Pat Ryder emphasised that the intent behind launching such a large number of missiles was clear: “to inflict substantial damage.” While many missiles were intercepted by Israel’s defence systems, several breached the defences, with one missile striking just outside Mossad headquarters—a clear warning of vulnerabilities.

Iron Dome: Its strengths and limitations

The Iron Dome, operational since 2011, has been a game-changer for Israel, boasting a success rate of over 90 per cent. Primarily designed to counter short-range threats, it has shielded Israel from countless rocket and mortar attacks, especially from Gaza-based groups like Hamas. In this latest barrage, the Iron Dome again proved its worth by intercepting many incoming missiles.

However, the Iron Dome is not designed to counter high-speed ballistic missiles like those Iran launched. It excels against shorter-range projectiles but struggles with the complexity and velocity of ballistic threats. Countering these requires more advanced and expensive interceptors, which fall under the domain of systems like the US-Israeli Arrow 2 and Arrow 3.

Arrow 2 and Arrow 3: Effective but finite

The Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, designed specifically to intercept long-range ballistic missiles, form the backbone of Israel’s defence against high-speed threats. The Arrow 3, for instance, can intercept missiles outside of Earth’s atmosphere, making it a critical component against ballistic missiles.

However, as Tuesday’s barrage demonstrated, even these advanced systems have their limitations. With nearly 200 missiles launched at Israel, the number of available interceptors becomes a crucial issue. Each interceptor missile is expensive and Iran’s strategy of overwhelming Israeli defences by launching missiles in quick succession may deplete stockpiles, reducing the efficacy of these defences during a prolonged attack.

Iran’s ability to fire such a massive volume of missiles, including advanced hypersonic variants, challenges Israel’s defence strategy. Successfully intercepting multiple ballistic missiles simultaneously requires split-second decisions and flawless coordination, yet even these systems can be overwhelmed by large-scale, coordinated assaults.

Hypersonic threats: A new challenge

The inclusion of Iran’s hypersonic missiles, like the Fatteh-2, marks a dangerous shift in missile warfare. Hypersonic missiles, designed to travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5, are notoriously difficult to detect and intercept. Their extreme speed shortens reaction times, making it far harder for missile defence systems to respond effectively. These weapons come in two forms: hypersonic glide vehicles and hypersonic cruise missiles, both of which present unique challenges for air defences.

Defending against these missiles requires cutting-edge technology, and it is uncertain how prepared Israel’s current systems are to handle this escalating threat. The sheer speed of these missiles reduces the margin for error, exposing potential weaknesses in even the most advanced missile defence networks.

Russia’s use of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine

Even before Iran’s recent use of hypersonic weapons against Israel, Russia has deployed hypersonic missiles like the Kinzhal and Zircon throughout its war in Ukraine, highlighting its advanced military capabilities. The Kinzhal was first used in March 2022, while the Zircon made its debut in February 2024. Despite Russia’s claims of these missiles being invincible, Ukraine has reportedly intercepted some using US-supplied Patriot systems. The Kinzhal, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, has a range of up to 2,000 kilometres and can reach speeds of Mach 10.

According to Newsweek, Russia’s use of these missiles not only showcases its technological prowess but also risks revealing vulnerabilities to NATO and other Western allies. Conversely, Russia could use these combat experiences to improve its missiles and outmanoeuvre Western air defence systems.

Iran’s missile support to Russia

While the missiles Iran reportedly supplied to Russia differ from those used against Israel this week, Tehran has strengthened its military ties with Moscow by providing approximately 400 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, including the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar, with ranges of 300 to 700 kilometres. As reported by Reuters, Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to operate the Fath-360, a short-range ballistic missile system.

Need for new defence strategies

Though hypersonic missiles pose significant threats, they are not entirely unstoppable, as Ukraine’s success with the Patriot air defence system suggests. In light of these advancements, Israel may need to update its defence strategies and technologies. The Iron Dome, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems have long safeguarded Israeli security, but with the missile threat evolving rapidly, Israel must adapt to meet new challenges.

Israel is already developing laser-based defence systems, such as the “Iron Beam,” which could complement existing missile defence networks. Laser systems offer the advantage of an infinite supply of shots, relying on energy rather than physical interceptors. While still in development, these systems could be crucial in addressing the challenge of missile saturation. By destroying missiles at the speed of light, they could solve the problem of running out of interceptors, providing a sustainable, long-term defence solution.

International alliances: A key to future defence

Israel’s defence strategy will continue to depend heavily on its international alliances, particularly with the United States. The Arrow systems were developed through close US-Israeli collaboration and continued support from Washington will be vital as Israel adapts its defences to counter new missile threats. Additionally, Israel may need to diversify its sources of military technology, exploring partnerships with other global powers to ensure it remains on the cutting edge of defence capabilities.

Adaptation is essential

The missile attacks on Israel, particularly the strikes on the Nevatim air base and civilian locations in Tel Aviv, have exposed both the strengths and limitations of Israel’s missile defence systems. While the Iron Dome, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 have performed admirably in protecting Israeli lives, the evolving missile threat from Iran—especially the use of ballistic and hypersonic missiles—demands a reevaluation of Israel’s defence strategy. With new technologies, international alliances and innovative defence solutions, Israel must remain agile to safeguard its future.