‘Putin combustible combination of grievance, ambition, insecurity; Xi bigger threat’: CIA chief Burns

The United States of America (USA) does not anymore enjoy “uncontested primacy” in the “world of intense strategic competition” the waters of which have been muddied by “China’s rise and Russia’s revanchism”, wrote CIA chief William Burns in Foreign Affairs.

“China’s rise and Russia’s revanchism pose daunting geopolitical challenges in a world of intense strategic competition in which the United States no longer enjoys uncontested primacy and in which existential climate threats are mounting,” Burns wrote.

The American spy master, however, also delved into Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping from a critical-strategic vantage, calling the former the “ultimate apostle of payback” and a “combustible combination of grievance, ambition, and insecurity”.

Vladimir Putin: Combustible combination of grievance, ambition, insecurity

Burns deftly deconstructs Putin’s “fixation” with Ukraine and the latter’s perception that controlling Ukraine was the only way for him to portray greatness, for himself as well as for Russia.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, wrote Burns, “exposed its weaknesses, from its one-dimensional economy to its inflated military prowess to its corrupt political system”.

“Putin’s war has already been a failure for Russia on many levels. His original goal of seizing Kyiv and subjugating Ukraine proved foolish and illusory. His military has suffered immense damage,” said Burns.

“At least 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, two-thirds of Russia’s prewar tank inventory has been destroyed, and Putin’s vaunted decades-long military modernisation program has been hollowed out.”

The result of all this, Burns wrote, has converted Russia into “China’s economic vassal”.

Burns also pointed to the short-lived mutiny by Russia’s mercenary king Yevegeny Prigozhin. As the “rag tag mutineers” headed for Moscow, the uprising, though failed, eroded “Putin’s carefully polished image of control”.

“For a leader who painstakingly crafted a reputation as the arbiter of order, Putin looked detached and indecisive… Prigozhin’s biting critique of the lies and military misjudgments at the core of Putin’s war, and of the corruption at the heart of the Russian political system, will not soon disappear.”

Xi sees US as fading power, but gets disappointed 

Burns accepted that China was the only rival to the US that has “both the intent to reshape the international order and the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so.”

“Russia may pose the most immediate challenge; China is the bigger long-term threat,” Burns conceded in the article.

While China’s growth was not a problem, Burns argued, it was the rise of Xi Jinping with practically unlimited powers since Mao Zedong that was problematic since rather than use his powers to “revitalise the international system that enabled China’s transformation, Xi is seeking to rewrite it”.

Burns wrote that Xi’s “repression at home” and his “aggressiveness abroad”—a reference to China destabilising the Taiwan Strait—was “impossible to ignore”, even more when it was read with his “no limits” partnership with Putin.

Burns sees American support for Ukraine against Russia as having had a sobering effect on China. He argued that America’s success in rallying allies to join in Ukraine’s fight against Russia and “United States’ willingness to inflict and absorb economic pain to counter Putin’s aggression” had jolted Xi’s perception of America being on terminal decline.

Iran: Key to West Asia tangle

Penning his mind, Burns considered Iran as the pivot to the larger West Asia issue, including the Israel-Hamas war. “Key to Israel’s—and the region’s—security is dealing with Iran. The Iranian regime has been emboldened by the crisis and seems ready to fight to its last regional proxy, all while expanding its nuclear program and enabling Russian aggression.”