'Primary adversary, ancillary problem': 5 things US intel report says about India's security threat from China, Pak

The US Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), in its ‘World Threat Assessment’ report, stated that Pakistan views India as a serious threat and will continue efforts to modernise its military—including the development of tactical nuclear weapons—to counter India’s stronger conventional forces.

China is the primary threat; Pakistan a lesser concern for India

The DIA’s World Threat Assessment report also mentions India’s Operation Sindoor against terror groups in Pakistan and the resulting rise in tensions. It adds that Prime Minister Modi’s defence priorities are likely to focus on demonstrating global leadership, countering China, and enhancing India’s military capabilities. India sees China as its primary threat, while viewing Pakistan as a lesser security concern, despite recent cross-border clashes.

Pakistan upgrading its nuclear weapons

Pakistan is upgrading its nuclear weapons with assistance from China, which continues to provide both military and economic support. Despite this, Pakistan maintains its focus on India as its main threat, the report notes.

It further states that Pakistan’s military is expected to remain focused on border tensions—particularly with India—and will continue modernising its nuclear arsenal in the coming year.

“Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control. Pakistan almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries,” the report states.

India tightening grip in the Indian Ocean

India is also strengthening defence ties with countries in the Indian Ocean region to counter China’s expanding influence and to bolster its global standing, according to the intelligence report. These efforts include joint military exercises, training programmes, arms sales, and intelligence-sharing with regional partners.

The report notes that India and China have agreed to withdraw troops from two remaining friction points in eastern Ladakh, easing tensions that have persisted since 2020. However, the long-standing border dispute remains unresolved.

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