Presidential polls: Has India finally worked out Maldives?

India seems to have worked out Maldives! Finally!

Well, it seems like that, but things will become clearer on 19 October when fresh polling takes place for Presidential election.

The stop-go-stop-go Maldivian Presidential elections seem to be finally heading for some sort of a political denouement, the result of which may well be as per India’s script. Mohammed Nasheed, who was ousted from power following bizarre events in February 2012 which he called a coup and who won 45 percent of votes in the first round of elections on 7 September, has reasons to smile after the Supreme Court annulled the first round of polling.

The current Maldivian President Mohamed Waheed, a former UN bureaucrat, who took office when Nasheed was ousted and had got just five percent of votes in the first round, seems to have thrown in the towel.

Waheed is believed to be a Shikhandi for the Bhishma Pitamah of Maldivian politics Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who ruled Maldives from 1978 to 2008 without any semblance of free, fair and transparent elections and is still seen as choreographing the country’s political destiny by trying to ensure that Nasheed does not come back to power. Incidentally, Nasheed was the first democratically elected President of Maldives in 2008.

India heaved a sigh of relief when President Waheed on 10 October issued a statement which was music to the ears of Maldives-watchers in New Delhi.

The statement issued by the President’s Office “condemn(ed) efforts by individuals to stop former President Mohamed Nasheed from running for Office of President of Maldives,” and said that “(President Waheed) believes this is not the time to engage in efforts to obstruct or bar candidates from going through the electoral process. It will not help resolve the already volatile political situation in Maldives.”

Waheed’s statement came in the wake of the filing of a petition in the Maldives Supreme Court against the Elections Commission, challenging the candidacy of Nasheed, leader of the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).

The petition, filed by Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) Council Member Ibrahim ‘Wadde’ Waheed and President of the ‘Madhanee Iththihaadh’ (Civil Alliance) Sheikh Mohamed Didi, seeks disqualification of Nasheed on the grounds of his alleged “outright criticism towards Islam and imposing Islamic Sharia in the Maldives” and his criticism of the judiciary. The petitioners have requested the court to issue an injunction to order the Elections Commission to suspend its efforts to print ballot papers.

PPM’s candidate Abdullah Yameen had stood second in the 7 September polling. PPM member Mohamed Waheed Ibrahim has contended that Nasheed had violated the spirit of the constitution.

What is glaring in the entire episode is the fact that the Maldives Supreme Court’s decision to annul the first round of polling was done by a wafer-thin majority of 4-3 with even the chief justice having voted against the annulment.

The sign of India’s relief in the ongoing Maldivian Presidential election hurly-burly was evident in a statement from the Ministry of External Affairs. In this statement, the MEA applauded Waheed’s statement which promises to be a game changer for the island nation’s politics — and for India.

The operative portion of the MEA statement is as follows: “As a close friend and neighbour, India has consistently supported the strengthening of democratic processes and institutions in Maldives. We believe that it is important that the stalled electoral process is put back on track. India strongly urges that the fresh elections dates stipulated in the verdict are adhered to so that a new President is elected in accordance with the wishes and democratic aspirations of the people of Maldives.

“We deplore the recent incidents of political violence and appeal to all sides to maintain peace and calm and to refrain from extra-constitutional measures. We encourage all concerned in Maldives to work for free, fair, inclusive and credible elections in a peaceful environment followed by a smooth transition on 11 November 2013, as stipulated by the Constitution of Maldives. In this regard, we welcome the statement issued by the Maldives’ President today afternoon condemning efforts to stop former President Mohamed Nasheed from running for office of President of Maldives.”

The island nation in Indian Ocean has been a foreign policy challenge for last 20 months since Mohammed Nasheed was ousted from Presidency. Nasheed met a similar reversal of political fortunes on 7 October when the Maldives Supreme Court annulled the first round of the Presidential elections held on 7 September and announced a re-poll scheduled for 19 October. The court has directed the government to complete the election process by November 3.

Maldives-watchers in the Government of India will be keeping their fingers crossed. As for Nasheed, he should stand to gain the voters’ sympathy when the rescheduled polling takes place on 19 October.

However, for New Delhi the proof of the pudding should be in eating.

The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst. His Twitter handle is @Kishkindha.