Pre-Christmas Winter sale, not prez polls, on Chicago's mind

Chicago: At the crowded shopping malls on Michigan Avenue in the heart of Chicago, only one word resonates. No, it is not ‘Election’ but ‘Sale’. The pre-Christmas Winter sale is on and just about everyone is checking out the latest in fashion and electronic goods.

And vote? Ah, we will see about that on Tuesday. After all, this is Barack Obama territory and pretty much taken for granted that it will vote for the President.

Though the President was not born in Chicago, he cut his teeth in politics in the what is often disparagingly referred to as the corrupt political world of Chicago. On D-day, Chicago is where the President will be, holding his election night at the McCormick place, addressing over 18,000 supporters. Obama would hope it will be a speech in which he will claim victory and renew his license to stay in White House for another four years.

But Governor Mitt Romney has shown no inclination to let Obama do a 2008. By this time, the last presidential race was already decided with Obama’s slogan of hope and change finding a lot of takers among an American public that was suffering from war fatigue and Bush fatigue. This time the race is far closer, with Obama just a touch ahead.

Twelve national polls whose findings were released on Sunday indicate that President Obama could be leading by just 1.3 percentage points. While all polls show that Romney and Obama are too close to call nationally, state-by-state polls give Obama a clear lead in the Electoral College. ‘The New York Times’ calculates Obama will have an 85 percent chance of winning the Electoral college if the popular vote were perfectly tied nationally.

But Romney is not buying any of the poll punditry. In a new television commercial, that is likely to be the last one of the estimated one million television ads on air, he says of Obama : “He is offering excuses. I have got a plan to fix the economy. I can’t wait for us to get started.’’

However, realising that a single-minded focus on job losses and invigorating the economy may not entirely appeal to the women voters, the Romney camp is also focusing on health issues, mounting an emotional pitch. In Columbus in Ohio, Reeves Grogen, a Republican supporter campaigns against Obama with posters and cautions “if Obama returns to power, 3000 babies will be aborted every day’’. The more conservative pro-life Republicans are against the practice of abortion while the Democrats argue in favour of defining healthcare as question of giving the right over her body to the woman and access to contraceptives to single women.

But with polls suggesting that abortion is the number one issue for women voters at 39 percent and that they trust Obama more to address them effectively, Ann Romney has got into the act, making phone calls to voters and talking about the humane side of her husband in TV shows.

The other major issue in this election is the manner in which the election has polarised the American electorate. A word of support to Obama from Colin Powell, who was Secretary of State to President George Bush between 2001 and 2005 was interpreted by fellow Republican John Sununu, who was earlier Governor of New Hampshire, as a decision motivated by the common colour of Powell and Obama’s skin.

The divide manifests itself in the election meetings too. At a Republican election meeting addressed by John Boehner, Speaker of the House of Representatives in Lima in Ohio, there is not a single Afro-American in a crowd of roughly 250 people. Already Vice President Joe Biden’s controversial remarks in August that the Republicans will chain the Blacks if they came to power created quite a stir.

The fact however remains that for Obama to return to power, it is important that the Afro-Americans, Asian Americans and Hispanics vote for him in large numbers like they did in 2008. Professor Paul Beck of the Ohio State University says, “If only Whites were to vote, Mitt Romney would win by a mile.’’ Four years ago, 95 percent Afro-Americans voted for Obama as did 66 percent of Hispanics and Asian Americans. The fact that most of them did not turn out to vote in the mid-term poll in 2010, was seen as a major reason for the Republicans good performance. So if Obama is to win, his team has to ensure the non-whites come out to vote in large numbers.

Another cause for worry for the President’s camp would be the ‘Obama defectors’. They are those who voted for Obama in 2008 but found things did not quite work out as expected. Would they vote for Romney especially with Republican ads specifically wooing Afro-Americans in battleground states like Ohio. These ads use the image of Abraham Lincoln, a Republican President, emphasising how he was the one who abolished slavery.

At the Ohio State University when Obama was campaigning in October, someone yelled, “I love you.’’ The President responded, “I love you back but I need you voting.’’

Clearly at election time, the way to Obama’s heart is through the polling booth.

TS Sudhir is travelling in the US as part of an exclusive group of 25 journalists from 25 countries, to report on the Presidential Elections. The tour is organised by the Foreign Press Center, US Department of State.