Political power struggle intensifies in the Philippines amid midterm elections

Campaigning for the Philippines’ midterm elections began on Tuesday against a divided political environment, exacerbated by a high-profile spat among rival elites that ended in Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment last week.

The impeachment may result in Duterte’s removal from her position and a lifetime ban from public office, and it comes amid an increasing dispute between her and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, whose once-powerful partnership catapulted them to a resounding electoral victory in 2022.

Their disagreement has sent shockwaves across Philippine politics, transforming the midterms into a high-stakes power struggle and a foreshadowing of a potential confrontation between their factions in the 2028 presidential election.

Marcos is limited to a single term under the constitution and is expected to groom a successor, while Duterte would be eligible to run in 2028 if she survives the impeachment.

“The ones fighting in open warfare during the midterms are the same ones who won the historic unity victory in 2022. That’s very significant,” said political analyst and former presidential adviser Ronald Llamas.

“They secured the highest vote count in our history, and yet, almost immediately after winning, they began to unravel. This impeachment is just one episode in an unfolding saga that could rival any Netflix series.”

Up for grabs in the May elections are 317 congressional seats and thousands of local posts. But the biggest battle will be for 12 spots in the 24-seat Senate, a chamber packed with political heavyweights and wielding outsized influence.

High-stakes contest

For Marcos, the elections are widely seen as a referendum on his leadership as he seeks to secure a legislative majority to push forward his administration’s agenda.

But the stakes are equally high for Duterte, who faces an impeachment trial in the Senate expected in June. The election for the upper house will feature allies of Marcos and Duterte and will effectively decide half of the jurors in that Senate trial.

For Duterte to be removed, at least 16 senators, or two-thirds of members, must vote to convict her.

A survey by independent pollster Pulse Asia last month showed nine of Marcos’ senatorial bets leading the race, but two Duterte loyalists were in the top 12, keeping the vice president’s camp in contention.

The trial looms as a pivotal moment not just for Duterte but for the political dynasty of her family, whose influence skyrocketed after father, Rodrigo Duterte, won the presidential election in 2016 on a promise to tackle crime and drugs.

Rodrigo Duterte, 79, remains a formidable political figure and is running for mayor in his hometown Davao City, where his two sons are also running, for vice mayor and for a seat in Congress, hoping to bolster the family’s southern stronghold.

The latest bout of drama erupted on February 5, when the lower house, led by Speaker Martin Romualdez, a cousin of Marcos, impeached Sara Duterte on charges that stemmed from accusations that included budget anomalies, amassing unusual wealth and an alleged threat to the lives of Marcos, the first lady, and Romualdez.

Duterte has denied wrongdoing, while Marcos, for his part, has said he does not support her impeachment.

Duterte led opinion polls last year on preferred candidates for the next presidency, so her removal, according to analyst Llamas, could be a boon for Marcos’ chances of deciding his succession.

“If you’re able to convict Sara … in a way, you level the playing field,” he said. “There’s no longer any dominant candidate.”