Poland, Romania & Portugal Elections 2025: Romanian centrist Nicușor Dan ahead in presidential race, exit polls show

In a critical weekend for European politics, pro-European Union candidates and parties made notable gains in Romania, Poland, and Portugal—though far-right contenders and rising political fragmentation underscored the continent’s shifting political landscape.

The incumbent center-right Democratic Alliance won a general election in Portugal on Sunday, but it failed to secure a majority in Parliament and was set to take office as a minority government for the second time in a year amid a surge in support for a hard-right populist party.

Portugal’s third general election in three years dashed hopes that the ballot could end the worst spell of political instability for decades in the European Union country of 10.6 million people.

Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski and a conservative historian, Karol Nawrocki, emerged as the front-runners in Poland’s presidential election Sunday, according to an exit poll, putting them on track to face off in a second round in two weeks.

A late exit poll by the Ipsos institute released three hours after polls closed showed Trzaskowski with an estimated 31.1% of the votes and Nawrocki with 29.1%. That suggested that the runoff on June 1 could be very tight. Official results are expected on Monday or Tuesday.

Pro-European Union candidate Nicusor Dan on Sunday won Romania’s closely watched presidential runoff against a hard-right nationalist who modeled his campaign after U.S. President Donald Trump. The victory marked a major turnaround in a tense election that many viewed as a geopolitical choice for the former Eastern Bloc country between East or West.

The race pitted front-runner George Simion, the 38-year-old leader of the hard-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, or AUR, against Dan, the incumbent mayor of Bucharest. It was held months after the cancelation of the previous election plunged Romania into its worst political crisis in decades.

The pro-European Union candidate in Romania’s critical presidential runoff has won the closely watched race against a hard-right nationalist, nearly complete electoral data shows, in a tense election rerun that many viewed as a geopolitical choice between East or West.

The race pitted front-runner George Simion, the 38-year-old leader of the hard-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians, or AUR, against incumbent Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan. It was held months after the cancellation of the previous election plunged Romania into its worst political crisis in decades.

After 10.5 million of 11.6 million votes had been counted, Dan was ahead with 54.32%, while votes for Simion stood at 45.68%, according to official data.

The pro-European Union candidate in Romania’s tense presidential runoff has taken a clear lead in the polls, nearly complete electoral data shows, in a closely-watched vote against a hard-right nationalist that could determine the geopolitical direction of the NATO member country.

Sunday’s election in Portugal was poised to deliver yet another minority government, an exit poll suggested, as the increasingly fragmented political landscape defies efforts to unite behind policies on issues such as immigration, housing and the cost of living.

The center-right Democratic Alliance captured between 29% and 34% of the votes in the country’s third general election in three years, according to the exit poll by Portugal’s Catholic University for public broadcaster Radiotelevisao Portuguesa.

The center-left Socialist Party got between 21% and 26% while the hard-right populist party Chega (Enough) had between 20% and 24%, the poll indicated.

Portugal is headed for a hung parliament, according to exit polls from Sunday’s general election, with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) projected to gain seats but fall short of a governing majority.

While AD has emerged stronger and is expected to seek a coalition with the economically liberal Initiative party, their combined support is still unlikely to clear the threshold needed to form a stable government. The prospect of a broader right-wing alliance is complicated by AD leader Luís Montenegro’s firm rejection of any deal with the far-right Chega party, which has made significant gains.

Chega, led by populist André Ventura, is now on track to potentially overtake the Socialist Party (PS) as Portugal’s second-largest political force — a dramatic shift in the country’s political landscape. The Socialists, who have led the opposition, appear to have lost substantial ground.

The task of appointing a new government now falls to Portugal’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Under the constitution, he will consult all parties with parliamentary representation before inviting a party or coalition leader to form a government. However, he has stated clearly that he will only nominate a candidate if there is sufficient assurance that their programme won’t be defeated in parliament, either through support or abstentions.

With no clear majority and mounting ideological divides, Portugal may face weeks of political negotiation — and the real possibility of gridlock.

Pro-EU Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski was tipped to narrowly win the first round of Poland’s presidential election on Sunday and face a runoff against nationalist Karol Nawrocki on June 1, an exit poll showed.

Trzaskowski was expected to get 30.8 percent of the vote and historian Nawrocki 29.1 percent, according to an Ipsos poll, with neither candidate passing the 50 percent threshold required to win in the first round.

Preliminary results are expected early Monday.

Exit polls from Sunday’s first round of Poland’s presidential election show a neck‑and‑neck contest between centrist Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki, setting the stage for a high‑stakes run‑off.

Trzaskowski, who topped the exit poll in Sandomierz, told supporters, “I said it would be close and it is close. A lot of work ahead of us, we need determination, we need your votes…we are going for victory.” The Civic Platform deputy leader, who has pledged to cooperate with the incoming government, remains confident that his progressive, pro‑EU platform will carry him through to the presidency.

Meanwhile, in Gdańsk, Nawrocki — the 41‑year‑old head of the Institute of National Remembrance — rallied his base despite narrowly trailing in the poll. “We will win this election,” he declared, calling on far‑right voters who backed other candidates to unite behind him and “save Poland.” A staunch conservative championing traditional Catholic values, Nawrocki is banking on consolidating the nationalist vote to overtake his centrist rival.

With neither candidate securing an outright majority, Poland now heads into a runoff runoff on June 1, where Trzaskowski’s pledge of cooperation and Nawrocki’s appeal to right‑wing solidarity will both face their ultimate test.

Poland’s presidential race has come down to two sharply contrasting figures: Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki.

Trzaskowski, 53, is the pro-European mayor of Warsaw and a leading voice in the centre-right Civic Platform. Known for his progressive stance on civil liberties, LGBT+ rights, and environmental issues, he appeals to urban and younger voters. A seasoned politician, he previously served as Europe minister and speaks several languages.

Nawrocki, 41, is a historian and political newcomer on the national stage. Backed by the nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS), he heads the Institute of National Remembrance and has worked to highlight Polish heroism in WWII history. A staunch conservative, he champions Catholic values and positions himself as a defender of traditional Polish identity.

Their head-to-head runoff on June 1 is being closely watched as a referendum on the country’s future direction — liberal European integration versus nationalist conservatism.

An exit poll conducted for TVI and CNN Portugal suggests that the centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) has taken the lead in Sunday’s general election, with between 29.1% and 35.1% of the vote.

The Socialist Party (PS), currently in opposition, is projected to win between 19.4% and 25.4% — closely matched by the far-right Chega party, which is expected to secure between 19.5% and 25.5%.

If the results are confirmed, Chega could, for the first time, draw level with or surpass the Socialist Party to become Portugal’s second-largest political force. That outcome would mark a significant shift in the country’s political landscape.

Chega has steadily grown in popularity in recent years, capitalising on nationalist and anti-establishment sentiment. The final results, once released, will determine whether the centre-right AD can form a stable government and whether Portugal’s parliament will see a more prominent role for the far right.

Poland’s presidential race is heading to a closely fought run-off, with centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and radical-right candidate Karol Nawrocki emerging as the top contenders in Sunday’s vote, according to an exit poll by Ipsos.

Trzaskowski, the candidate for the Civic Platform (PO), leads with 30.8% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Nawrocki from the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS), who secured 29.1%. The two will face each other in the second round on June 1.

In his first remarks following the release of the exit poll, Trzaskowski acknowledged the unexpectedly tight result. “The race is very close,” he told supporters, striking a cautious tone despite his slight lead.

Trailing behind were far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen with 15.4%, Grzegorz Braun with 6.2%, and the leftist Adrian Zandberg at 5.2%. Other candidates, including Szymon Hołownia, Magdalena Biejat and Joanna Senyszyn, secured smaller portions of the vote.

The results set the stage for a high-stakes showdown between two sharply contrasting visions for Poland: Trzaskowski’s pro-European centrism and Nawrocki’s nationalist platform rooted in traditionalism and state conservatism.

Romania’s government said it had detected a misinformation campaign bearing the “hallmarks of Russian interference” in the country’s presidential election Sunday after the founder of the Telegram platform indicated that France had asked for Romanian conservative voices to be silenced.

Nationalist George Simion was facing pro-European Union centrist Nicusor Dan in a tight race for the presidency.

Romania’s constitutional court in December cancelled an election following allegations of Russian interference and a massive social media promotion of the far-right frontrunner. Russia denied involvement.

“During Romania’s ongoing presidential elections yet again we see the hallmarks of Russian interference,” Romania’s foreign ministry spokesman posted on X.

“A viral campaign of fake news on Telegram and other social media platforms is aimed to influence the electoral process,” he added.

Presidential candidate Nicusor Dan. AFP Photo

As early exit polls place Nicușor Dan in the lead in Romania’s presidential election, attention is turning to the man who could soon become the country’s next head of state.

Dan, who has served as mayor of Bucharest since 2020, is running as an independent candidate with backing from a centrist coalition. Known for his technocratic style and anti-corruption stance, he has built his political career on promises of reform and transparency.

He first gained national prominence more than a decade ago as the founder of the Save Bucharest Association, a civic initiative aimed at protecting the Romanian capital from poor urban planning and corrupt local governance. The group’s success catapulted him into politics, where he quickly became a leading figure in Romania’s modern reformist movement.

A strong advocate of the European Union, Dan has repeatedly emphasised Romania’s commitment to Ukraine, arguing that supporting its neighbour is vital to safeguarding Romania’s own national security in the face of Russian aggression.

At home, Dan has pledged to prioritise the rule of law, push for administrative reform and address inequality. Fighting corruption remains central to his campaign, as he promises to bring a more efficient and accountable approach to governance.

Polling stations have closed in Romania’s presidential election, with early exit polls showing centrist Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan in the lead. According to figures released by Avangarde for TVR1, Dan has secured 54.9% of the vote, ahead of far-right AUR party leader George Simion, who stands at 45.1%. Voter turnout was high at around 65%, reflecting the stakes in a deeply polarised race.

In his first remarks after the vote, Dan praised the “impressive strength” of Romanian society and pledged to focus on justice and administrative reform. However, he cautioned supporters to brace for difficult economic challenges ahead.

Poland voted on Sunday in a tight presidential election that will be decisive for the future of the country’s pro-EU government as well as for abortion and LGBTQ rights.

Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski is expected to win 30 percent of the vote, according to opinion polls, ahead of nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki on 25 percent.

That would put both through to a run-off on June 1 at a fraught moment for Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drags on, far-right populists continue to make electoral gains and ties with Washington are under strain.

Voting ends at 9:00 pm (1900 GMT), when exit polls are expected. The final official results of the contest, in which 13 candidates are running, are expected on Monday.

Portuguese voters cast their ballots on Sunday in the country’s third general election in three years, with Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) projected to emerge ahead but fall short of a governing majority.

Final opinion polls suggest the AD is set to improve on its 2024 performance and surpass the ruling Socialist Party (PS) in vote share. However, it is still expected to secure fewer than the 116 seats required for a majority in Portugal’s 230-seat parliament.

Just two days before country was to hold its first round of a hotly contested presidential election, Poland’s governing party was hit by a cyberattack.

The Civic Platform party – whose presidential candidate was leading polls ahead of Sunday’s vote – blamed Russian hackers for the attack on Friday. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk belongs to this centrist party.

The incident follows an apparent cyberattack in April, which saw Civic Platform’s IT systems targeted in what the government described as an attempt to gain control over the computers of party employees and election staff, DW reported.

The Polish presidential election saw a turnout rate of over 20 per cent of eligible voters by midday, DW cited the country’s electoral commission as saying.

Despite being four percentage points lower than the same time during the last presidential election in 2020, it is six percentage points higher than in 2015.

Poland has about 28.3 million eligible voters.

Romanians were voting on Sunday (May 18) in a tense presidential election re-run, a tight race between a fan of US President Donald Trump and a pro-EU mayor that could reshape the direction of the key NATO member bordering war-torn Ukraine.

If nationalist George Simion wins the rerun — held after last year’s vote was annulled over allegations of election interference — he would become the country’s first far-right president.

That would thrust Romania into a growing group of European Union countries with nationalist leaders critical of Brussels and keen to cut military aid to Ukraine.

Far-right leader Simion and his rival, Bucharest’s Mayor Nicusor Dan, have both campaigned on a platform of change amid anger with politicians deemed corrupt who have ruled one of the EU’s poorest countries since the end of Communism 35 years ago.

Bucharest Mayor and presidential candidate Nicusor Dan voted in his hometown of Făgăraș on Sunday during the second round of Romania’s presidential election. He said he voted to keep the country on a pro-European path and avoid international isolation.

Poland is holding a presidential election amid rising security concerns, driven by the ongoing war in neighbouring Ukraine and fears that the US might be pulling back its commitment to European defence under President Donald Trump.

The top contenders are Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, a liberal ally of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and Karol Nawrocki, a conservative historian with no prior political experience, backed by the right-wing Law and Justice party.

Portuguese voters cast their ballots on Sunday in the country’s third parliamentary election in as many years. However, many expect continued political uncertainty, as the vote is unlikely to produce a stable government.

The election was called just a year into the centre-right minority government’s term after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro lost a confidence vote in March. He had proposed the vote himself after the opposition raised concerns about his family’s consultancy business.

Poland’s presidential election on Sunday will decide whether the country continues on Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-European path or shifts back towards nationalist politics aligned with US President Donald Trump.

Trump’s return to power has boosted eurosceptic forces across Europe. This election is the biggest test yet of Tusk’s pro-EU stance since he took office in 2023, replacing the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Portugal heads to the polls on Sunday for its third general election in as many years. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is expected to win, but likely without securing a clear majority in parliament.

Final polls show his centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) slightly ahead of the Socialist Party (PS), yet still short of the 116 seats required for a majority in the 230-seat assembly.

Montenegro has cut income taxes for young people, raised pensions, and adopted a tougher stance on immigration, vowing to end what he called a “wide-open doors” policy.

Immigration has emerged as a key issue in the election.

Under the previous Socialist Party (PS) government, Portugal became one of Europe’s most welcoming countries for immigrants. Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreign residents quadrupled, reaching around 15 per cent of the total population.

Poles are voting on Sunday in a presidential election that will decide if Poland stays on a pro-European path led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk or moves towards nationalist leaders who admire US President Donald Trump.

Trump’s return to power has encouraged eurosceptic groups in Europe. Sunday’s vote is the biggest challenge to Tusk’s pro-European plans since he took office in 2023, replacing the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The election is between Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski from Tusk’s Civic Coalition and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, supported by PiS. Trzaskowski is seen as the front-runner and may face Nawrocki in a run-off on June 1 if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent of the votes.

Romanians living abroad have shown strong interest in the second round of the country’s presidential election. Voting in the diaspora began on Friday morning, and by 7 pm on Saturday, more than 609,000 Romanians had already voted — almost 90 per cent more than at the same time in the first round.

Over 100,000 votes were cast in the UK alone, while Germany and Italy followed closely with about 97,000 each. In the Republic of Moldova, more than 70,000 voted, and over 65,000 turned out in Spain. More than 15,000 voters also participated in the US and Canada.

If this momentum continues on Sunday, the number of votes from abroad could exceed 1.5 million, a new record for Romanian elections.

Romania is voting in the second round of its presidential election, with the race too close to call between Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan and far-right leader George Simion, a Trump supporter.

Simion, who leads the AUR party, won the first round earlier this month with 40.96 per cent of the vote. Polls show both candidates are now neck-and-neck.

Voters in Portugal went to the polls on Sunday for the country’s third general election in three years, with Prime Minister Luis Montenegro tipped to win, yet without securing a majority in parliament.

Final opinion polls indicate his centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) and is likely to pick up more votes but once again fall short of the 116 seats needed in Portugal’s 230-member parliament to obtain a ruling majority.

The far-right Chega party is on track to finish third once more, making it a potential kingmaker, although Montenegro has refused to govern with the populist movement.

Poles were voting on Sunday in a presidential election that will decide whether Warsaw follows the pro-European path set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, or take a step towards bringing back the nationalist admirers of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump’s return to power has energised eurosceptics across Europe, and Sunday’s ballot will be the sternest test of Tusk’s pro-European vision since he came to power in 2023, ousting the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The election pits Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, from Tusk’s Civic Coalition, against conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS.

A hard-right eurosceptic and a centrist independent are facing off in Romania’s presidential election runoff on Sunday; the result might have an impact on the nation’s faltering economy as well as the unity of the EU.

George Simion, a 38-year-old hard-right nationalist who criticises the leadership of the European Union and opposes military aid to neighbouring Ukraine, handily won the first round of presidential elections, leading to the fall of a pro-Western coalition government. That led to large outflows of cash.

Poles were voting on Sunday in a presidential election that will decide whether Warsaw follows the pro-European path set by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, or take a step towards bringing back the nationalist admirers of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump’s return to power has energised eurosceptics across Europe, and Sunday’s ballot will be the sternest test of Tusk’s pro-European vision since he came to power in 2023, ousting the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party.

The election pits Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, from Tusk’s Civic Coalition, against conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who is backed by PiS.

Trzaskowski has been cast as the frontrunner, likely to face Nawrocki in a run-off, due on June 1, if no candidate wins over 50%. Media blackout laws forbid the publication of opinion poll results from early on Saturday until voting ends on Sunday.

Also competing are far-right candidate Slawomir Mentzen from the Confederation party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the centre-right Poland 2050 and Magdalena Biejat from the Left.

The Polish first round vote takes place on the same day as a second round presidential run-off in Romania, where George Simion, a nationalist who campaigns to “Make Romania Great Again”, faces centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.

Polls opened in Portugal on Sunday for a snap election that centre-right Prime Minister Luis Montenegro is tipped to win, but with no guarantee he can form a more stable government.

The election was called after Montenegro, a 52-year-old lawyer, lost a parliamentary vote of confidence in March following accusations of conflicts of interest stemming from his consulting firm’s business. Montenegro has denied wrongdoing.

The Polish first round vote takes place on the same day as a second round presidential run-off in Romania, where George Simion, a nationalist who campaigns to “Make Romania Great Again”, faces centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan.

A victory for two eurosceptic candidates would send shockwaves through the European Union at the bloc grapples with the twin challenges of Russia’s invasion of Poland’s eastern neighbour Ukraine and Trump’s tariffs.

Polls in Poland opened at 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) and close at 9 p.m. Around 29 million people are eligible to vote.

Voters in Portugal return to the polls Sunday for a third general election in three years, as the country’s increasingly fragmented political landscape defies efforts to unite behind policies on pressing national issues such as immigration, housing and the cost of living.

Hopes that the ballot might end the worst spell of political instability in decades for the European Union country of 10.6 million people could be dashed, however. Polls suggest the election is poised to deliver yet another minority government, leaving the Portuguese back where they started.

For the past 50 years two parties have dominated politics in Portugal, with the center-right Social Democrats and the center-left Socialist Party alternating in power. They are likely to come out on top in this ballot, too.

But public frustration with their record in government has fueled the growth of new alternatives in recent years. That has denied the bigger parties enough seats in Parliament to snare a majority needed to ensure they serve a full four-year term.