Pitting rebels against military junta, how China is playing dirty in Myanmar

Myanmar’s military junta is currently facing its most significant challenge since seizing power two-and-a-half years ago, as it contends with ethnic insurgent groups in a struggle for control over the country’s border towns. The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, which has held power for a substantial part of the country’s history since gaining independence, is exhibiting signs of a notable decline, with reports indicating that rebel forces have captured more than 8,000 square kilometres, nearly half of the nation. Amidst this conflict, China is navigating a delicate balancing act to protect its economic interests in Myanmar. As Myanmar’s largest trading partner, China maintains favourable relations with the ruling military regime. The ethnic insurgent groups aligned against the junta also enjoy good ties with China and have pledged to safeguard foreign investments, including Chinese-backed projects such as a railway line through Mandalay and pipelines to the Bay of Bengal which are of strategic importance to China. China backing rebels Despite China’s public backing of the military junta, reports are suggesting that the ongoing ethnic offensives wouldn’t have been possible without support from Beijing. The United Wa State Army (UWSA), a potent ethnic armed organization controlling an autonomous region in Myanmar’s northeastern Shan State, receives substantial material and political support from China. While the UWSA claims neutrality in the conflict between the Myanmar regime and the ethnic alliance, it remains a major arms supplier to the insurgent forces. Leaders of the UWSA command around 25,000 troops armed with Chinese-origin weapons, including FN-6 Man-Portable Air Defence Systems, armoured vehicles, and various light weapons. Additionally, the UWSA operates a factory in its controlled area, assembling a version of the Chinese Type-81 automatic rifle. Although China historically restricted the transfer of advanced weaponry to other actors in Myanmar, the UWSA has become a primary source of small arms and light weapons for its allied ethnic groups. China’s state news agency Xinhua, quoting the spokesperson for Beijing’s Foreign Ministry, recently said that when the ethnic alliance initiated its offensive, China urged relevant parties in Myanmar to cease fire and resolve disputes through dialogue. Perpetual ethnic clash Ethnic conflicts have become a major challenge in Myanmar’s ongoing political transition, causing the displacement of hundreds of thousands and hundreds of estimated fatalities. This situation is also becoming a significant test for Myanmar’s relations with China, which plays a role in managing militarized conflicts along the China-Myanmar border and supporting Myanmar’s peace efforts. The offensive in the northern part of Shan state posed a considerable challenge for the army, grappling with a nationwide uprising by the Peoples’ Defence Force (PDF), a pro-democracy armed group formed after the 2021 army takeover. Various PDF groups across the country have aligned with well-organized ethnic armed groups, such as the Three Brotherhood Alliance, consisting of the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, which have long sought greater autonomy from Myanmar’s central government. The intensified fighting between the army and ethnic minority armed groups, including those in the alliance, began after the military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021. Many groups, including those in the Three Brotherhood Alliance, have collaborated with pro-democracy militias formed post-coup, collectively known as the People’s Defence Force, engaging in battles with the army across the country. The complexities in the politics of ethnic groups in the north are compounded by the region’s proximity to China, which maintains strong relations with Myanmar’s ruling generals. The alliance members also have positive relations with China and have pledged to protect foreign investments in their territories, where Chinese-backed projects are situated. Additionally, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), representing Myanmar’s Kokang minority, is ethnically Chinese. The Kachin Independence Army, a robust ethnic armed group with the capability to produce its armaments, is aligned with the Three Brotherhood Alliance. The alliance’s current offensive is perceived as invigorating the nationwide armed resistance against the military regime that took control over 2 1/2 years ago after ousting the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. China serving own interest China’s interests in Myanmar, particularly concerning ethnic conflicts in the border regions, are consistent with its long-term strategic goals. A key policy objective for China in Myanmar is “border stability,” which is crucial for strategic, security, and economic reasons along the shared border. Another strategic interest is the pursuit and preservation of access to the Indian Ocean, with Myanmar serving as a ’land bridge.’ Instability along the borders poses challenges to China’s extensive infrastructure projects, including roads, railways, and energy pipelines under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The China-Myanmar oil and gas pipelines, linking Myanmar’s Rakhine state to the Bay of Bengal and the Chinese Yunnan provincial capital Kunming, play a vital role in transporting imported energy from the Bay of Bengal, West Asia, and Africa to Chinese hinterlands. In a rare acknowledgement of the challenges, Myint Swe, the military-appointed President, recently stated, “It is necessary to carefully control this issue” regarding the rebel offensive. When the military took control in February 2021, following the ousting of Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, it resorted to force to establish order, arresting numerous pro-democracy politicians, including Suu Kyi, and launching a violent crackdown on protests. Since then, advocacy groups report that over 4,000 civilians and pro-democracy activists have been killed, with around 20,000 people jailed. The UN estimates that 1.7 million individuals have been displaced from their homes. However, the junta’s violent actions have done little to stabilize the country.