Peacemakers or geopolitics at play? Scramble for power in Syria after Assad's fall

The opposition groups as well as global and regional players are scrambling for power in Syria’s power vacuum.

Even as the new power dynamics are not clear in Syria, the broad winners and losers are clear.

While Turkey has emerged as the de facto kingmaker as the backer of victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Russia and its ally Iran are the main losers as their proxy Bashar al-Assad has been overthrown.

In recent years, the Syrian Civil War is the second regional conflict in which Turkey has ensured a favourable outcome. Previously, Turkey had sponsored Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Now, after Assad has been toppled, Turkey is using the chaos in Syria to pummel Kurds in the country’s northeast to push them away from the Turkey-Syria border.

While Assad was not at all a favourite of Israel, it is wary about Islamist hardliners as well who have toppled the Assad dynasty.

From Israel, Turkey, and Iran in the region to Russia and the United States beyond the region, many players invested in Syria are currently evaluating their options and are scrambling for power.

Turkey continues power grab in Syria by attacking Kurds

Turkey did not stop with the ouster of Assad. Even as the HTS-led opposition forces were on their way to Damascus, Turkey and one of its proxies, a militia named Syrian National Army (SNA), had started attacking Kurdish towns.

Since the ouster of Assad, the Turkey-SNA combine and HTS have opened a front against Kurds, an ethnic group that runs an autonomous administration in northeastern Syria called Autonomous Administration of. North and East Syria (AANES). By Wednesday (December 11), they had attacked Kurds in at least three towns in northern and eastern Syria.

Over the weekend, as the HTS was leading the decisive push toward Damascus, the Turkey-SNA combine attacked Kurds in Manjib in eastern Syria.

Following the attack Manjib, the SNA, a group of mercenaries and criminals sponsored by Turkey, launched an offensive against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Kobani.

Then, on Tuesday, the HTS captured the eastern Syrian city of Deir Ezzor from the Kurds, who had captured the city from Assad’s forces last week.

While Kurds are key allies of the United States and are central to the war against the Islamic State (Isis) in the region, Turkey is opposed to Kurds and equates SDF with the Kurdish group PKK, which it blames for an insurgency in Turkey and labels as a terrorist group. Therefore, Turkey has for years attacked Syrian Kurds and has sought to limit the size of their territory and push them farther from the Turkish border.

Israel plays cautious game

Even though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has taken credit for the fall of Assad’s regime, Israel is watching the developments with caution.

It is true that Assad would not have been overthrown without Israel’s role. Since the October 7 war brought on the region by Hamas, Assad’s main allies Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah have been battered in the conflict with Israel. As Assad was essentially propped as the Syrian ruler by Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia, the battering of Iran and Hezbollah and distraction of Russia in Ukraine meant that they could not support Assad.

Following Assad’s ouster, Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes inside Syria to destroy weapons like missiles, chemical weapons caches, missile production facilities, intelligence facilities, etc. of the Assad regime to prevent the HTS from accessing them.

Israel has also moved into the buffer zone in southern Syria to project power on the Syrian side of the Israel-Syria border and safeguard from any adventurism of the HTS or other opposition groups.

Even though the HTS claims to have given up its terrorist roots, there are doubts whether the group has actually reformed. Until 2016, the HTS was essentially the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda.

Israel has said that it is willing to cooperate with Syria’s new rulers if they do not pose threat.

US seeks ‘inclusive’ govt, Russia & allies engage with rebels

The United States has welcomed the fall of the Assad regime and has called for the creation of an “inclusive” government in the country.

US President Joe Biden called the fall of the Assad’s dynasty “a moment of historic opportunity” to build a better future of Syrians.

Biden also recognised the uncertainty and flagged that the celebration could be premature. As has been case in Yemen and Libya where dictators were toppled over the past decade, Biden said “it would be a waste of this historic opportunity if one tyrant were toppled only to see a new one rise up in its place”.

Biden further said, “It’s now incumbent upon all the opposition groups who seek a role in governing Syria to demonstrate their commitment to the rights of all Syrians, the rule of law, and the protection of religious and ethnic minorities. These past few days have been historic, and, you know, it’s in the days ahead that will determine the future of this country and we intend to approach them with strength, wisdom, and resolve.”

Biden has dispatched his top officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, to the region to engage with partners to coordinate the approach to Syria.

Meanwhile, Russia has said that it is in contact with all opposition groups. Russian state media has reported that a deal has been reached with opposition groups for the safety of prized Russian military bases in Syria. Similarly, Iran appears to be grudgingly coming to terms with the fact that it has really lost the hold over Syria it once had through Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

France calls for stop of foreign attacks, Germany commits to rebuilding

Meanwhile, Europe has sought to stop the conflict from spiralling into another civil war that further destabilises the country.

In a statement aimed at Israel, France said that foreign attacks inside Syria should stop and a smooth transition of power should start.

Similarly, Germany has committed billions of dollars for the rebuilding of Syria.

Europe would be the biggest beneficiary of a stable Syria and biggest loser if the situation worsens. If the situation improves, then several hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees in Europe —more than 800,000 in Germany alone— could return. If the situation worsens, then Europe could see waves of more refugees which are bound to stress resources and fuel social discord.

Meanwhile, India has called for an “inclusive political process” in Syria. In a statement this week, India said it advocates “a peaceful and inclusive Syrian-led political process respecting the interests and aspirations of all sections of Syrian society”.