Opinion | Joe Biden may hurt Imran Khan’s oversized ego, but won’t go far enough to hurt Pakistan

On 7 October, Pakistan’s foreign ministry posted a press release on its website surprisingly bearing the date of the previous day. It stated, “We have seen the text of a letter circulating in the social media allegedly written by the Foreign Minister to the Ambassador of Pakistan in Washington. The letter in circulation is completely fake and baseless.” The letter’s unprofessional language raises valid doubts about its genuineness. Besides, it is traditional in South Asian foreign ministries that career ambassadors, such as Asad Majeed Khan, the current Pakistani ambassador to the United States, are pulled up by foreign secretaries and not ministers, especially through such written communications. That too erodes the letter’s credibility. Normally, foreign ministries do not stoop to comment on forgeries that prima facie would not be taken seriously. Certainly, no knowledgeable observer would have taken this purported Qureshi letter so. Nevertheless, Pakistan’s foreign ministry felt compelled to disown the letter because it was gaining substantial media traction, mainly because of its interesting contents. The letter focused on Prime Minister Imran Khan’s frustration with President Joe Biden at his refusal to establish any contact with him. Thus, when the letter complained of the White House’s “indifference” to the Pakistani leadership despite “the key role played by Pakistan” in Afghanistan, it stated what is well-known. The letter also bitterly noted the lack of US reciprocity to Pakistani efforts to “establish a healthy line of communication” with the White House. That too is well-known. For this state of affairs, the purported letter conveyed the Pakistan Prime Minister’s Office unhappiness with the Pakistani ambassador’s inability to deliver on these crucial points. Imran Khan and the Pakistan Army may well be unhappy with the Pakistani diplomatic establishment for its inability to pacify US, which is apparently displeased over Pakistan’s policies and actions. If that is so, then the Pakistani foreign ministry’s instinctive reaction would be to pass the blame on to Asad Majeed Khan, as unjustified as it may be. Thus that is not strange. What is unusual is that the whiz kid, Moeed Yusuf – who was brought from the confines of a think tank to Pakistan and raised to the status of the national security adviser – is not facing any real public criticism so far for his failure to deliver on substantially improving US-Pakistan ties. Yusuf had himself, no doubt, projected that he could help in putting an end to the mutual grievances which have characterised US-Pakistan relations for many years. However, he has not even succeeded in arranging a Biden-Imran Khan telephone call as yet. Clearly, Biden and his advisors have decided to keep Imran Khan on ice for the present. Their reasons for doing so were best revealed in the 13 September appearance of secretary of state Anthony Blinken at the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee. Blinken was asked if it was time to “reassess” US relations with Pakistan and its status as a non-NATO ally because of its support for the Taliban. He said, “This would be one of the things we will be looking at in the days and weeks ahead.” In arriving at a decision, Blinken told the Committee that the US would consider the “role that Pakistan has played over the past 20 years and the role we would want them to play in the coming years”. The anger with Pakistan in the Biden administration and in sections of the US Congress is apparent. Yet, at no point in the past 20 years — and before that too — was the US unaware of Pakistani involvement in sponsoring terror, indulging in nuclear proliferation, in playing a duplicitous game by itself and in concert with China. A dispassionate review of US-Pakistan relations reveals that at one end of the spectrum the US has been comprehensively supportive of Pakistan; and, at the other, despite anger and admonitions, it has ensured that the troubled South Asian country does not go under. Will it be any different now? Will the Biden administration go beyond refusing to establish direct contacts with Imran Khan? Will it take demonstrable action that will genuinely damage Pakistan in ways that even China with all its resources will not be really able to cushion? Or will it, as it has always done, allow it to continue with its negative regional policies and involvement in the sponsorship of terror without paying any great price? The chances are that the US is unlikely to move out of the policy spectrum it has pursued through the decades and inflict real pain on Pakistan. Why? A brief review of the past may provide clues. In the 1950s and 1960s, the US made Pakistan an ally because it provided bases against the erstwhile Soviet Union. In the 1980s Pakistan played a vital role in enabling the US to engineer the defeat of the Soviets in Afghanistan. After 9/11 while Pakistan continued to support the Taliban, it also provided a crucial supply artery to Afghanistan and handed over al-Qaeda operatives. So, despite its duplicity it was not only tolerated but financially rewarded. Now Pakistan cashes in on US fear that its instability may lead to some of its nuclear weapons and technology going into the wrong hands. Pakistan takes advantage of these US fears. In this context it should be recalled that Biden as Vice-President had stunned then Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Biden had bluntly told Karzai that Pakistan was fifty times more important to the United States than Afghanistan. The US also feels that it needs Pakistan to prevent Afghanistan from going into complete anarchy and again become a base for international terrorists. Thus, despite all the bluff and rhetoric that is likely to emanate from Washington the US cannot be expected to significantly hurt Pakistan, even though it is in the Chinese camp at a time when real prospects of a US-China Cold War have emerged. Yes, the US may take some cosmetic steps against Pakistan, but nothing more should be expected. By refusing to contact Imran Khan, the US President may hurt the oversize ego of the Pakistan Prime Minister but nothing more. The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal.