OPEC+ to hike oil output again in September amid Trump push to cut Russian imports

A brief virtual meeting among eight OPEC+ countries on Sunday ended with an agreement to sharply increase oil production in September, even as the United States steps up pressure on India to curb imports of Russian oil, part of Washington’s broader strategy to push Moscow towards peace talks with Ukraine. President Donald Trump has said he wants progress by August 8.

In its post-meeting statement, OPEC+ pointed to strong global economic indicators and low inventory levels as key drivers behind its decision. Crude prices have remained robust, with Brent futures closing near $70 per barrel on Friday—up from a low of about $58 earlier this year, buoyed in part by seasonal demand.

“Given fairly strong oil prices at around $70, it does give OPEC+ some confidence about market fundamentals,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, adding that the market structure was also indicating tight stocks.

The eight participating nations will raise their collective output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing the accelerated reversal of a 2.2 million-bpd supply reduction imposed in 2023. The increase also accounts for a phased-in boost from the United Arab Emirates.

OPEC+ sources told Reuters that the same group would reconvene on September 7, when they may evaluate whether to reintroduce another layer of cuts amounting to roughly 1.65 million bpd, measures that are officially extended through the end of next year.

The broader OPEC+ coalition, comprising 10 non-OPEC producers including Russia and Kazakhstan, has historically curbed production to stabilise prices. However, the alliance pivoted this year, aiming to reclaim lost market share, a move aligned with calls from Trump urging the group to increase supply.

The phased hikes began in April with a 138,000-bpd boost, followed by steeper increments of 411,000 bpd over the next three months, 548,000 bpd in August, and now 547,000 bpd for September.

“So far the market has been able to absorb very well those additional barrels also due to stockpiliing activity in China,” said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. “All eyes will now shift on the Trump decision on Russia this Friday."

As well as the voluntary cut of about 1.65 million bpd from the eight members, OPEC+ still has a 2-million-bpd cut across all members, which also expires at the end of 2026.

“OPEC+ has passed the first test,” said Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, as it has fully reversed its largest cut without crashing prices.

“But the next task will be even harder: deciding if and when to unwind the remaining 1.66 million barrels, all while navigating geopolitical tension and preserving cohesion."

With inputs from agencies