On Ukrainian front, grinding war and weary anticipation of invasion
But after eight years in the trenches, there is a weary acceptance that the status quo cannot last forever, that the Russian military, which dwarfs their own in power and wealth, will likely come sooner or later.
Avdiivka: Machine-gun fire broke the stillness just after 8 p.m. when Capt. Denis Branitskii was midway through the evening patrol. The shots came in sporadic bursts and were close by, fired by Russian-backed separatists whose positions were obscured in the darkness. Only when the flash of a rocket-propelled grenade illuminated the newly fallen snow did Branitskii break his stride, briefly pausing to take cover before moving on.
“This happens every night,” said Branitskii, a cleft-chinned company commander with the Ukrainian military’s 25th Airborne Brigade, positioned along the front lines in eastern Ukraine. “Sometimes it’s much heavier; sometimes it’s like tonight. Tonight, this is fine.”
This is what the war has been like for years, a slow, bloody grind that set in after both sides fought to a stalemate over territory seized by Russian-backed forces in 2014. Now Ukrainian and Western officials say something more ominous could be building.
In recent weeks, they have warned that Russia was erecting the architecture for significant military action, possibly even a full-fledged invasion. American intelligence officials have assessed that Moscow has drawn up plans for a military offensive involving an estimated 175,000 troops to begin as early as next year. Recent satellite photos show a buildup in equipment, including tanks and artillery.
President Vladimir Putin of Russia has countered that it was the Ukrainians with their American and Western European backers who were instigating a war, citing what he calls security threats to Russia, including NATO exercises in the Black Sea.
Amid mounting anxiety, Putin and President Joe Biden will speak by video conference Tuesday. The White House said Biden would “reaffirm the United States’ support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”
Putin has made his position clear. “It is not we who are threatening anyone,’’ he said last week, “and accusing us of this, given the reality on the ground, or as we say to shift the blame from the person who’s sick in the head to the healthy one, is at minimum irresponsible.”
For the fighters dug into an ant farm of muddy trenches on both sides of the conflict in Ukraine, talk of a new war might seem puzzling. For them, the old one never ended. A 2015 cease-fire between the Ukrainian government and the Russian-backed forces in two separatist enclaves brought an end to the most serious hostilities in a conflict that has cost more than 13,000 lives. But it did not bring peace.
What is known as the “line of contact” separating the two sides regularly crackles with gunfire punctuated with the occasional boom of artillery. A handful of Ukrainian soldiers is killed each month, mostly by sniper fire. There were seven in September, two in October and six in November. Last week, a 22-year-old soldier named Valeriy Herovkin became the first killed in December.
So far, soldiers on the front lines said they had seen little evidence of escalation beyond this largely slow-moving war of attrition. Compared with the vicious fighting that preceded it, this is a holiday, several soldiers said.
But after eight years in the trenches, there is a weary acceptance that the status quo cannot last forever, that the Russian military, which dwarfs their own in power and wealth, will likely come sooner or later. If that moment is now at hand, they said, so be it.
“I studied at university, and my head is screwed on right, so I recognize perfectly well the danger the Russian army presents and that no one can guarantee that Putin or anyone else won’t suddenly say, ‘Forward!’” said 1st Lt. Ivan Skuratovsky, a stoic, 30-year-old father of two who has been fighting since the war broke out in 2014. “We’re prepared for this turn of events because this is our job, and none but us is in a position to confront this threat.
“Are we scared of an open offensive?” he added. “I just don’t see that in people.”
The soldiers are on heightened alert anyway, aware that in this period of explosive tensions, an errant bullet or mortar shell could be all that is needed to touch off a serious escalation. Even when fired upon, they are under strict orders not to respond unless absolutely necessary.
If a full-on attack comes, Ukrainian forces are as ready to face it as they’ve ever been, said Gen. Oleksandr Pavlyuk, commander of the Joint Forces Operation battling the separatists. But even this, he acknowledged, will not be enough to hold off the Russian military without significant assistance from western countries, specifically the United States.
Some military analysts have said that, faced with a full invasion by vastly superior forces, Ukraine would at best manage an organized retreat. Pavlyuk cited the many citizens in Ukraine with military experience and suggested the conflict might evolve to something akin to insurgency, with Ukrainians fighting the Russians block by block and house by house.
But the war would take a disastrous toll.
“This is a beast who has tasted blood,” Pavlyuk said. “Believe me, the losses are going to be horrible on both sides — thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands. On their side and ours.”
For those on the front charged with paying attention, there is a subtle but palpable change in the air even if unnoticed by regular soldiers.
“In the last month or month and a half everything has become more frequent,” said a masked and helmeted military intelligence commander who would only give his name as Ilya. “Shelling is more frequent, from both artillery and small arms. Drones have started flying more often, and if before they did not drop bombs, now they’ve come up with a system for doing so.
“It’s a full-on activization.”
Ilya’s team had turned the inside of a bombed-out apartment into an observation post on the front lines near the town of Marinka, 35 miles from Avdiivka. A section of the wall is still decorated with the former owner’s pink wallpaper, but the living room window has been blown out and is now reinforced with sandbags and covered with green mesh netting. This vantage gives Ilya and his team an expansive view of their opponent’s positions.
All was quiet. Or so it seemed.
“Don’t lean out too much; there might be a sniper,” Ilya warned. “Just two days ago, a guy was shot and didn’t make it.”
The United States and its NATO allies held talks this week with Russia to ease tensions over Ukraine, where tens of thousands of Russian troops have massed on the border
Even before the assault on key Ukrainian government websites today, European ministers had warned that cyberattacks could precede, or accompany, a military incursion that Russia may be planning as it masses 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border.
Biden said the US was preparing for Russia to take action that fell outside the parameters of a conventional warfare.