Obliterated or obscured? UN struggles to trace missing uranium after US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites

The US strikes on Iran’s key nuclear facilities have left United Nations inspectors grappling with a critical question: did the attacks destroy Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium or was it moved before the bombing ?

Last weekend’s bombardment of the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites was part of what Washington described as a mission to cripple Tehran’s atomic ambitions. But according to a classified US intelligence report reviewed post-strike, the damage to Iran’s nuclear program is expected to delay its progress by only a few months, an assessment that contradicts former President Donald Trump’s declaration that the program had been “completely and totally obliterated.” Israeli intelligence, meanwhile, believes the operation caused more substantial harm.

Despite the strikes, satellite imagery reviewed by the Telegraph shows Iran has already begun repairs at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. The Institute for the Study of War said images from June 27 reveal a filled-in crater and support equipment, signs that restoration is underway.

Yet a far more urgent concern is the status of Iran’s enriched uranium. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said on Monday that centrifuges at the Fordow facility were likely badly damaged but it’s unclear whether Iran’s total stock—estimated at nine tonnes, including 400 kg enriched to 60%, just below weapons-grade was destroyed or relocated.

Grossi warned that Iran could resume producing enriched uranium “in a matter of months.” In the meantime, officials in Western capitals are scrambling to determine whether the material was destroyed, buried or secretly transferred before the attacks.

According to The New York Times, US and Israeli intelligence suggest Iran may have anticipated the strikes. Maxar Technologies released satellite imagery from June 19 and 20, days before Operation Midnight Hammer began showing at least 16 cargo trucks outside the Fordow enrichment site. Two Israeli officials told the NYT that Iran probably moved 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium in advance. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that “almost all” of the stockpile was relocated to a secure location.

The IAEA has been unable to verify any of this. Since the June 22 strikes, inspections have been suspended with Iran denying access to international monitors amid military tensions. Grossi, addressing the UN Security Council, said the delay hampers a “critical” verification process and called for renewed diplomacy.

However, Iranian officials have dismissed suggestions that Tehran will scale back its nuclear efforts. Deputy Foreign Minister Takht Ravanchi told local media, “No one can tell us what we should and should not do.” Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was quoted by The Telegraph as saying that even if the facilities were wiped out, the enriched uranium, technical know-how and political resolve remain.

Speaking to Reuters, more than a dozen former and current officials familiar with Iran’s nuclear dossier suggested that the strikes may have inadvertently helped Iran mask its stockpiles. Former top IAEA inspector Olli Heinonen said the search for the missing material would likely involve long and complex efforts—digging through rubble, collecting environmental samples, and conducting forensic tests.

“There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing,” said Heinonen, now at the Stimson Center in Washington.

The IAEA has long held that Iran’s 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium, if further refined, could be enough to produce nine nuclear weapons. Even a small amount of that going unaccounted for would worry Western governments, who suspect Tehran wants to maintain the option of building a bomb.

Grossi said Iran notified him on June 13, the day of the initial Israeli strikes that it was taking steps to safeguard its nuclear assets, though details were not provided. A Western diplomat cited by Reuters said most of the enriched uranium at Fordow appeared to have been removed ahead of the bombing, raising suspicions that Tehran was forewarned.

Iran has repeatedly stated it is not pursuing a nuclear bomb and prior to the strikes, US intelligence assessments agreed. However, experts point out that enriching uranium to 60% has no civilian utility, power reactors run on uranium enriched to below 5%.

Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association said on X that Iran’s 60% enriched stockpile, while perhaps not the main military target, is a critical proliferation risk, especially if any of the centrifuges have also gone missing.

While Israel and the US may soon press Tehran to prove its uranium stockpile hasn’t been hidden or diverted, both countries are also the most likely to level such accusations, according to officials cited by Reuters.

The situation brings back echoes of the Iraq war. As seen during the failed search for weapons of mass destruction in 2003, when hard intelligence is lacking, verification efforts risk devolving into futile pursuits.

For now, the hunt continues with no clarity in sight.