No military solution to Pakistan LoC violations, India needs a long term plan

Pakistan is proving to be more than a nuisance for India as well as the Narendra Modi government. The million dollar question is how to find a long-term solution to the problem: Pakistan’s capacity to up its ante by livening up the borders with unprovoked firing at will. This has been India’s main bug bear in dealing with this situation, but for decades the past Indian governments have failed to find a permanent solution. The situation has exacerbated since 1998 when Pakistan became a declared nuclear weapon state, which raised the military stakes in favour of Pakistan. The now-familiar conundrum for India’s Pakistan policy makers is that though you are much stronger than Pakistan you cannot raise the pitch of your military response beyond a certain level for fear of a full-fledged war, which will obviously trigger the specter of a nuclear war in the subcontinent. Such a scenario will inevitably bring the international community into the frame and there will be immense diplomatic pressures to resolve the problems peacefully soonest possible. [caption id=“attachment_1748679” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  PTI[/caption] This is the biggest deterrent for India, for giving what Indian politicians rhetorically describe as a “befitting response." But the fact remains that whatever military response India comes up with in the event of Pakistan’s provocations, as has happened for the past one week, has to be within certain political and military parameters. Pakistan, on the other hand, is not bogged down by any such compulsions. It knows pretty well that it cannot win a conventional war with India. And yet, like a blood-sucking mosquito, it dances down on the Indian face at will, bites here and there and then vanishes into thin air only to come back at the next opportune moment. This is the kind of scenario that has been enacted for decades. Though India is armed with effective repellents, much of these cannot be put to use for fear of crossing the military threshold and risking a full-fledged war. In other words, India has to demonstrate to Pakistan once and for all that whenever it comes up with its favourite tactic of troubling India with unprovoked firing on the borders, the political and military costs will be too high for repeat action. In a way, the Modi government is already doing this. It has effectively pursued an ‘eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth’ strategy rather effectively in dealing with Pakistan’s intransigence at the borders. But there is a diplomatic cap on such a strategy. India has taken the border firing battle right into the Pakistani camp and the Indian forces have caused much more devastation in Pakistan than what Pakistani troops have done to India. So much so that the Pakistan government is reported to have imposed gag orders on their TV channels and restrained them for showing the damage caused by the Indian shelling. Also, Pakistan’s political and military leaders now want India to stop and are talking in conciliatory terms. India has refused to heed these signals from Pakistan – and rightly so. The Indian reasoning is not difficult to comprehend. After all, it was Pakistan that started it all and the onus lies on them to stop the cross-border firing before any talks take place between the military commanders of the two sides. Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leader Bilawal Bhutto has wondered whether India is following the “Israel model”. Such a statement is a great victory for India as well as the Narendra Modi government as it shows that the tough Indian stand seems to be working. The problem will eventually die out in the coming days. But this will only be a temporary solution. Next summer the Pakistanis will start their familiar tactics all over again, perhaps with greater intensity. But this has to change. And this has to change without a military solution. The real solutions lie in raising the political costs for Pakistan and augmenting India’s covert warfare capability to never-before levels. Therefore, India will have to think in longer term and devise solutions accordingly. The best course available for India to achieve this would be to upgrade their own stealth, surveillance and intelligence capabilities while degrading Pakistan’s capability to surprise India with such provocations at the borders in future. To do this, India will do well to follow Sun Tzu, the legendary Chinese military general, strategist and philosopher and the author of the “Art of War” who lived circa 500–320. BC. Pakistan’s specialists of pursuing the policy of waging a proxy war against India for over three decades should be mindful of this Sun Tzu one-liner: “There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.” Here are a few guidelines from Sun Tzu: On espionage and counter-espionage: It is essential to seek out enemy agents who have come to conduct espionage against you and to bribe them to serve you. Give them instructions and care for them. Thus doubled agents are recruited and used. On military tactics: If asked how to cope with a great host of the enemy in orderly array and on the point of marching to the attack, I should say: “Begin by seizing something which your opponent holds dear; then he will be amenable to your will.” Rapidity is the essence of war: take advantage of the enemy’s unreadiness, make your way by unexpected routes, and attack unguarded spots. On war strategy: The art of using troops is this: ……When ten to the enemy’s one, surround him; ……When five times his strength, attack him; ……If double his strength, divide him; ……If equally matched you may engage him; ……If weaker numerically, be capable of withdrawing; ……And if in all respects unequal, be capable of eluding him, ……….for a small force is but booty for one more powerful. On stealth factor: The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable. *The writer is FirstPost Consulting Editor and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.