Negotiation to evacuation: What India must do to save citizens in Iraq

The Ministry of Home Affairs confirmed on Wednesday that 40 Indian workers had been kidnapped in Iraq. The workers, mostly from Punjab and parts of north India, were workers with a construction company in the Mosul town of Iraq, External Affairs Ministry spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said.

Meanwhile, there are about 600 people from Telangana currently in Iraq. Deputy Chief Minister Mohammed Mehmood Ali said on Wednesday said the state government was in touch with the Ministry of External Affairs and was gathering information about those from Telangana feared trapped in Iraq.

Former diplomat KC Singh said during a debate in CNN-IBN, “In the fog of a civil war you will get conflicting news so we don’t know what the reality is. The government needs to first sort out the real facts. The ministry has sent Suresh Reddy who has excellent contacts. He would be talking to the Saudis and the Qataris because they were involved with ISIS in the past. Indian military assets cant do anything. We have to send planes to only get the people out of Baghdad.”

As the kin of those who are stranded in Iraq are crying for help, Punjab CM Parkash Singh Badal even went to the extent of saying that he is ready to pay ransom to get back the workers belonging to Punjab. Singh countered that this was the wrong approach. “Don’t speak of ransom. Use other assets. Governments, when they say are willing to pay ransom, in future becomes prey because others can be picked up for ransom.”

Meanwhile, retired Commodore MR Khan said, “There are a number of groups operating in the region. One thing which is in our favour is that ISIS is trying to establish that everything is normal. It is unlikely that they would mistreat the Indian hostages.”

“I don’t think ISIS is going to make any more enemies. I think this situation is not as hopeless as it might appear on the surface. Because the situation is confused, much of the trouble is because of the Iraqi government. I don’t think the Iraqi govt will have any clout with ISIS. It will have to be through humanitarian groups that we negotiate,” he added.

Vijay Prashad of the American University in Beirut said, “ISIS has a track record of kidnapping foreigners and taking ransom. It is really important that the Indian government stays in touch with the International Red Cresent. It is a good time to make a phone call to Riyadh.”

It is not just the 40 kidnapped workers. Over 10,000 Indians are estimated to be currently living in Iraq. The MEA Spokesperson said around 100 Indians are in violence-hit areas. In such a situation, does India busy itself in negotiations to free those kidnapped or evacuate the others?

“The crisis had been building for a week. We wake up after things happen. If we have a large worker population in a volatile area then we have to keep a track of where they are,” said Singh.

Also, he said, “We have to function on both negotiating and evacuation. The people don’t voluntarily want to move, but the government has to take a call and make sure they move out. At least have a fall back protocol.”

India has military assets in the Gulf that may be needed for evacuation. Khan said, “This geo-political crisis cannot last too long and ISIS doesn’t have capability to occupy Baghdad. Much before that some kind of intervention from US is likely. Our naval ship can go and evacuate only once the negotiation is done.”

Firstpost in a report had said, for India, the Iraq crisis could have serious consequences as the Middle-eastern country is the second largest supplier of crude oil to India. If the Iraqi military fails to prevent fighters from taking over Baghdad and southern Iraq, the global crude oil market will see some serious upheavals. Thus, New Delhi can little afford to be at ease.

Khan said, “The oil angle is very important. Oil market operates on sentiments. Even if there is a small shortage oil prices tend to spike and this would not be liked by the western countries. And I think they would make sure that the ISIS would be stopped before they reach those oil wells.”

The Iraq government asked the United States Wednesday to carry out air strikes against Sunni jihadists who attacked the country’s main oil refinery and seized more territory in the north. The appeal came as fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were pressing a week-long offensive that has brought them close to the capital."

Prashad said, “The US has said that airstrikes would be counter productive. I wouldn’t hold my breath for the US cavalry to ride in. The pressure on Baghdad is very great. It may not fall to ISIS, but may fall prey to major trouble.”

“I would strongly recommend that the Indian government should evacuate Indians and there is no point waiting. I think it should have begun already. It is a scandal that evacuation has not started,” he said.

Meanwhile Khan was of the opinion that negotiations must be done first. “They must negotiate from whatever channels available to find out which group is holding. Once that is done we should immediately divert our ships to evacuate our people.”