Nawaz Sharif's India trip: Why Modi won't be a pushover

The die has been cast. The diplomatic gauntlet Prime Minister-designate Narendra Modi had thrown to Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif by inviting him — and leaders of seven SAARC countries and Mauritius — for his swearing-in ceremony on 26 May has been bravely picked up by Sharif. Now brace for a never-before inauguration of Indian Prime Minister in the history of independent India. Modi’s swearing-in ceremony has become an international news story with heavy foreign policy agenda even though no substantive discussions will be held with each of the eight foreign dignitaries who would be gathering in New Delhi on Monday. [caption id=“attachment_1540859” align=“alignleft” width=“380”]  Nawaz Sharif in a file photo. AFP[/caption] All prime ministerial inaugurations in India till date have been domestic events laced only and only with political agenda. But on 26 May this will change drastically, perhaps forever. Modi’s successors in years to come too would have to invite foreign leaders and the Modi template may get even more grandiose as future prime ministers may invite foreign leaders not from near-abroad alone, but may make their inauguration ceremony a global event. The acceptance of Modi’s invitation by Sharif, in many ways, has the potential of a double-edged sword that may cut both ways. It may do well to Modi, but at the same time is also a potential landmine. First of all, the attendance of foreign dignitaries, particularly Sharif, would inevitably shift focus from the main event — Modi’s swearing-in ceremony. But then this is a minor point in the high stake gamble that Modi has played. There is also a risk that Sharif may use this event to further his own political agenda and bring back focus on the Kashmir issue. Whenever Pakistani leaders visit India they make it a point to meet with Hurriyat leaders. The UPA government allowed visiting Pakistani leaders to have closed-door confabulations with the Hurriyat separatists. But Modi would have factored-in this scenario in the first place. His invite to Sharif had green signal from the RSS and there is a strong possibility that the RSS won’t allow Sharif to meet Hurriyat leaders during his 26-27 May visit. There isn’t much difference between strategies of the RSS and Modi anyway. Considering that the RSS is the 10, Janpath of the BJP, Modi would ensure that Sharif does not get to meet Hurriyat leaders during this brief visit. Then there is another pitfall for Modi. Pakistani leaders are known for turning every visit to India into a one-day cricket match and eventually turning the tables on the Indian political leadership. Even the last BJP government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee has been a victim of Pakistan’s dexterous handling of the media. But Modi should do much better than any other Indian prime minister since Indira Gandhi. He is on a much stronger footing than the illustrious Vajpayee as unlike Vajpayee Modi is not straitjacketed by compulsions of coalition politics. Modi has stormed to power with an absolute majority. Therefore, the upcoming Indo-Pak Political League match will have no clear favourites. India will not be entering this match as an underdog. This in itself is a major plus point for a Modi-led India. There will inevitably be media hype and Nawaz Sharif will be the most important player to watch out for. But Modi will be no pushover. Fallout of Sharif’s acceptance of the Modi invite could be that Modi may declare his External Affairs Minister well before his swearing in. However, Modi is under no constraint to appoint a Minister-in-Waiting for each of the eight foreign dignitaries who have confirmed their participation for the swearing in ceremony. That is because these foreign leaders will be in India on a working visit, not on a state visit. The diplomatic trappings of appointing Minister-in-Waiting for a visiting foreign head of state or government come into play only in case of state visits. Modi will have 30-minute bilateral meeting with every foreign dignitary, perhaps excluding Bangladesh as Dhaka is sending its Speaker for the 26 May function. But all these bilateral meetings would be in the nature of courtesy calls and no substantive issues would be discussed. The case of Pakistan, however, is much different. Modi knows that even if his bilateral meeting with Sharif won’t have any substantive agenda, Sharif may well take up all core issues between India and Pakistan. The Ministry of External Affairs is working overtime in view of the plethora of bilateral meetings between Modi and foreign leaders and it is a hectic weekend for the Indian diplomats. One thing is certain. Irrespective of what issues are eventually raised by Sharif in his 27 May meeting with Modi, the Indian Prime Minister would be flagging Indian concerns over the terror issue. Incidentally, a high-level security team led by ITBP DG left for Herat on Saturday for an on-the-spot assessment of Friday’s terror attack on the Indian Consulate in that Afghan city. The single-point mission objective of the Indian team would be to find out whether perpetrators of the Herat attack were choreographed or helped by Pakistani military establishment. Whatever the outcome of the Indian team’s investigations, it won’t impact the much-awaited bilateral meeting between Modi and Sharif. The writer is a Firstpost columnist and a strategic analyst who tweets @Kishkindha.