Myanmar plans December elections: Will Naypyidaw get a military-controlled democracy like Pakistan?

While delivering a speech at the annual Armed Forces Day, Myanmar’s Military Chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing that after a long military rule, the country will hold general elections by the end of this year. He called out opposition groups, who were protesting against the military rule for years to come and joined party politics.

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The announcement is coming at a time when Myanmar is trying to clean its image on the global stage, with the Junta leader seeking international recognition. The junta’s takeover of Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021 has been met with widespread opposition both within and outside the country.

Soon after General Hlaing announced plans to hold elections, critics saw it as an attempt to legitimize the military’s seizure of power through the ballot box and to deliver a result that ensured the generals retained control. Some even wonder if Myanmar is heading to the Pakistani route, where it is the army which will ultimately decide who will be ruling the country. So is Myanmar becoming the next Pakistan?

The timing of it all

The reaffirmation from the Junta chief is coming at a time when Myanmar is spiralling into a civil war. During his address, General Hlaing condemned the array of armed groups fighting his rule, referring to them as “terrorist insurgents” who are driven by “warlordism”. It is pertinent to note that currently much of the country is outside the junta’s control.

The military which threw the ruling regime four years ago is facing major losses in its battles against rebels. Recently, the junta has lost the key northern town of Lashio, including a regional military command, and swathes of the western Rakhine state. They are struggling because the civil war pits the junta’s forces against both anti-coup guerillas and long-established ethnic minority armed groups.

The deplorable state of the country also makes many wonder if  Myanmar can afford to have polls or not. Ever since the military coup, more than 3.5 million people have been displaced and half of the population in the country is currently living in poverty. In April this year, one million civilians are expected to face aid cuts from the World Food Programme after US President Donald Trump slashed Washington’s humanitarian budget.

The aid cuts are also coming at a time when a plethora of trade sanctions from international actors have already isolated Myanmar, making it increasingly dependent on countries like China and Russia for economic and military support.

Myanmar trying to paint a picture are the world stage

To avert trade sanctions, Myanmar’s junta is trying to paint a picture at the global level. Next week, General Hlaing will be attending the BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand. According to sources close to the junta, the military chief will try to seek several bilateral meetings during the summit, Reuters reported.

After the country fell into the hands of Junta, Myanmar was barred from meetings of the Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN, since the country failed to implement an agreed peace plan.

BIMSTEC, or the Bay of Bengal initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, includes Thailand, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan. Many claim that the upcoming visit will be Myanmar’s was of looking east while it is facing challenges and sanctions from the West.

But can the elections in Myanmar be trusted?

Critics have been sceptical about the polls, questioning whether it will be fair or not. Many have already mentioned that the polls will be neither free nor fair because there is no free media and most of the leaders of Suu Kyi’s popular but now dissolved National League for Democracy party have been arrested.

The 79-year-old veteran politician is currently serving prison sentences totalling 27 years after being convicted in a series of politically tainted prosecutions brought by the military. Despite doubts, Hlaing insisted that 53 political parties have already shared their lists to participate in the polls.

There are some who claim that Myanmar might be looking at becoming a “kingmaker” instead of becoming a king. This means, the junta has the potential to bring a political party into power which continues to remain under its influence. A similar model have been in play in Pakistan for decades.

Lessons from Pakistan

It is safe to say that Pakistan’s history is a testament to the military’s unyielding influence on the country’s political landscape. This can be seen in the fact that the country went under direct military rule for over three decades of its 77-year existence, with coups in 1958, 1977, and 1999.

However, between these periods, while the country saw civilian rule, it continued to remain under the shadows of the military. Until recently, the Pakistani army has maintained a firm grip on critical domains like foreign policy, security, and defence budgets. This is part of the reason why no prime minister of the country has ever completed a full five-year term.

It is interesting to note that in recent decades, the Pakistani army has redefined its approach towards the country’s political structure. Instead of launching a direct coup, the Pakistan army resorted to yet equally effective method of control: manipulating elections to install favoured civilian leaders while retaining the power to oust them when they diverge from military interests.

We saw how former Prime Minister Imran Khan rose to the occasion after he was on the good side of the army and how he fell from grace after he had friction with the army. This now the begs that if elections take place in Myanmar, will the country’s political landscape will match that of Pakistan.

With inputs from agencies.