Myanmar crisis to South China Sea tensions: Is PLA's Southern Theatre Command stretched?

China’s People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command is facing an unprecedented strain as it prepares for a three-day live-fire drill on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border. This drill, set to commence on Tuesday, is a critical test of the command’s capabilities as it grapples with the increasing instability in Myanmar, which poses a significant threat to China’s border security and strategic interests.

Escalating tensions and the need for vigilance

The Yunnan provincial government announced that the drill would take place in several key locations including Ruili city near the townships of Huyi and Wanting, Zhenkang county near Mengdui township and the autonomous county of Gengma Dai and Wa near Mengding town. These areas are close to the nearly 2,000-kilometre border that Yunnan shares with Myanmar making them particularly vulnerable to the spillover effects of the ongoing civil war in Myanmar.

According to South China Morning Post, the PLA Southern Theatre Command has emphasised that the primary purpose of these drills is to “test the theatre troop’s capabilities in rapid mobility, three-dimensional containment, and joint combat, to maintain the safety and stability of the border areas.” This statement reflects the PLA’s concerns about the growing violence in Myanmar and its potential to destabilise the border region.

The decision to conduct these live-fire drills follows increasing violence between Myanmar’s ruling junta and armed ethnic minority groups. The conflict, which has dragged on since Myanmar’s military coup in 2021, has intensified, raising alarms in Beijing about the security of its border and the safety of Chinese assets and personnel in the region.

Southern Theatre Command: A force stretched thin

The Southern Theatre Command, tasked with overseeing one of the most strategically significant regions for China, is facing mounting pressures that are pushing its resources and capabilities to the limit. The scope of its responsibilities is vast, encompassing not only land-based challenges like the Myanmar border but also extensive maritime duties in the South China Sea and security concerns in the broader Southeast Asian region.

The Southern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army is unique in that it must manage operations across multiple domains simultaneously. This includes land-based operations along the Myanmar border, maritime security in the South China Sea and air operations that support both naval and land operations.

The South China Sea is one of the most contested regions in the world and the Southern Theatre Command is at the forefront of China’s efforts to assert its claims over this vast maritime area. The command is responsible for maintaining a robust military presence in the region, which involves constant naval patrols, air surveillance and the maintenance of military installations on several artificial islands. These operations are resource-intensive and require a high level of coordination among various branches of the PLA.

The PLA Navy’s Southern Fleet, operating under the Southern Theatre Command, is tasked with a wide array of missions from routine patrols to potential conflict scenarios with foreign navies. The fleet must also be prepared to enforce China’s maritime claims often involving standoffs with vessels from other nations including the United States. The PLA Air Force units under the Southern Theatre Command are similarly stretched. They must conduct regular reconnaissance missions enforce airspace control over contested areas and provide rapid response capabilities in case of escalation.

The ongoing civil war in Myanmar poses a significant challenge to the Southern Theatre Command. The border between China and Myanmar is long and rugged making it difficult to monitor and secure.

Diplomatic and strategic overstretch

In addition to its military responsibilities, the Southern Theatre Command is also involved in China’s broader strategic and diplomatic efforts in Southeast Asia. This includes protecting Chinese investments in Myanmar, ensuring the security of critical infrastructure projects and supporting China’s strategic ambitions in the region.

China’s investments in Myanmar, particularly those related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) are of strategic importance. The Southern Theatre Command is tasked with ensuring the security of these projects, which include pipelines, roads and ports that are critical to China’s access to the Indian Ocean. Protecting these assets from potential threats, whether from internal conflict in Myanmar or external interference, adds another layer of responsibility to the command’s already heavy workload.

China has been actively involved in diplomatic efforts to mediate the conflict in Myanmar, seeking to stabilise the situation and protect its interests. However, the limited success of these efforts means that the Southern Theatre Command must remain on high alert ready to respond to any further deterioration in the security situation. This constant state of readiness further strains the command’s resources and personnel.