Myanmar elections in November will be under scanner, could signal evolution of polity

Myanmar will be under the scanner of the international community — particularly India — in around two months when it goes to the polls in November. If this election is deemed to be free and fair, it may just see the loosening of the military’s grip over the polity after half a century, and the emergence of an Opposition that could be spearheaded by dissidents or rather disgruntled elements among the Tatmadaw (the armed forces). A significant redistribution of parliamentary seats favouring Opposition parties is the most likely result of this forthcoming election. Such a result will support the gradual evolution of the political system and state at large, away from military control, over the levers of power. What may emerge could be an unsteady balance of power. [caption id=“attachment_2423552” align=“alignleft” width=“380”] President U Thein Sein of Myanmar. AP[/caption] Any rift with the military could be to the advantage of the National League of Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi. But it is not a foregone conclusion that a significant number of NLD members in Parliament will entitle them a share of power. Suu Kyi, as is well known, is debarred from seeking office because her family members are British nationals. There are few indications of this constitutional bar being removed, as of now. The recent voting down of constitutional amendments in Parliament — almost certainly (and solely) by the bloc of appointed, non-elected military parliamentarians — to a certain erodes the legitimacy of the electoral process. The Tatmadaw retain their privileged political powers and Suu Kyi remains barred from the presidency. These events question the sincerity of Myanmar’s transition away from military rule, especially as power is becoming increasingly more diffuse and diversified, with respect to the actors involved. As of now, there are indications that the U Thein Sein government is determined to hold credible elections. Despite her ineligibility for the post of president, Suu Kyi and her party have now committed to participating in the elections. They, along with a number of ethnic parties, present voters with a range of options, which enhances the credibility of the process. Yet challenges remain. These include a high risk of violence during the campaign, especially as a number of nationalist monks become increasingly politically outspoken against ethnic and religious minorities. There remain fears that loopholes, including the much-criticised national voters list, may be exploited by the ruling regime to maintain power. Unlike the 1990 election, there are strong indications that the generals — with their powers and prerogatives secured — will accept the result, even if that implies the demise of their allies in the incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Divisions within the ruling regime, most recently the unexpected removal of Thura Shwe Mann as the head of the USDP, by what appears to be a coordinated move with Thein Sein and the military, present opportunities for Opposition parties to gain further power. This includes working with marginalised power-holders to promote an alternative political future. This adds another layer of complexity, with the involvement of an increasing number of actors including the country’s still-powerful military. An NLD legislative victory, even a decisive one, will not entail automatic access to and control of the executive and government. This is due to the processes stipulated by the Constitution for determining their membership; processes over which the Tatmadaw retains significant influence. But the diminution of the USDP will open doors for the NLD and others, making them indispensable entities with which the military will have to work, if they are committed to system maintenance. This diversification of the political realm will make coalition building and finding common ground a difficult and constant endeavour. The NLD, for example, remains largely focused on the removal of the military politically. But the main priority of many ethnic parties — which are increasingly organising into formalised blocs in an attempt to become legislative power brokers — is the reconfiguration of powers between Central and state governments. The elections hold the promise of Opposition parties winning a large number — if not a majority — of seats. These can then be employed in the negotiations and voting for the state’s senior executive positions, including two of the three presidential candidates and the speakers of the lower and upper Houses. Even securing a few of these important posts will propel Opposition entities into the cabinet and the National Defence and Security Council (NDSC), bodies overwhelmingly comprised of active and former military officers.