Modi's Russia visit: A message to west or a move to offset China's clout?

Ahead of the scheduled meeting with the Western military alliance known as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) slated for July 9 to 11 in Washington next week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the guest of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia on July 8-9.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg highlighted that providing continued support to Ukraine will be NATO’s “most urgent task,” with a substantial package expected to be agreed upon by member states."

Modi’s visit to Russia is significant given the deepening relations between Russia and China, and India’s strategic interests in maintaining strong ties with Moscow. The timing of Modi’s trip underscores the delicate balancing act India performs on the global stage, considering growing China’s influence, the Ukraine conflict, and shifting geopolitical alliances.

While the West has tried to isolate Putin, China, India and powers in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have continued to build ties, with official figures showing rising trade with Russia.

“It will be a good opportunity for Moscow to project in the media the image of President Putin receiving a leader of a country like India in the context of the Washington summit,” said Aleksei Zakharov, a Moscow-based expert on India.

“India’s objective is to ensure that Russia is not in China’s corner and that, even if it does not explicitly support India, it maintains a permanent neutrality in the India-China territorial disputes.”

However, in a recent media briefing, Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra turned down any connection and said PM Modi’s visit was part of the calendar of summits between the two countries.  “The bilateral visit this time is just a scheduling priority that we have undertaken and that’s what it is,” he told reporters at a briefing.

NATO allies at their summit in Washington next week will unveil a “bridge to membership” plan for Ukraine and announce steps to bolster Kyiv’s air defenses, a senior U.S. official said on Friday. Last week, a senior U.S. State Department official said Ukraine is expected to get “good news” in its quest for more air defence systems at a NATO summit in Washington next week, a senior U.S. State Department official said on Tuesday.

Why Modi’s visit matters for Moscow

Analysts said Modi’s visit could help dispel worries that New Delhi is getting too close to the West and further away from Moscow, ceding space to China.

While the West has tried to isolate Putin, China, India and powers in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America have continued to build ties, with official figures showing rising trade with Russia.

The leaders of Russia and India have held annual summits since 2000 but the last in-person meeting was in 2021, when Putin visited Delhi. The next meeting had been due in Moscow in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, but it did not happen, while Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping elevated their ties, pledging a “new era” of partnership in May.

The two are meeting at a security summit on Wednesday in Kazakhstan, to which Modi has sent his foreign minister. India has also been seeking to distance itself from its largest arms supplier, Russia, as the Ukraine war hobbled the latter’s ability to supply munitions and spares.

The dearth of Modi’s visits to Moscow had given “rise to speculation that there was some kind of drift in the Indo-Russia relationship,” analyst Nandan Unnikrishnan, of the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi told Reuters.

“So I think Modi’s visit will put an end to that kind of speculation,” he said. “And we don’t want to spoil our relationship with any party, whether it’s Russia, the United States, or anyone because of another relationship.”

India-Russia trade

India-Russia bilateral trade has seen a sharp increase in 2023-24. It has since touched close to $65 billion, primarily due to strong energy cooperation between India and Russia. With Indian exports of $4 billion and Indian imports being close to $60 billion, trade remains imbalanced, which is a matter of priority in our discussions with the Russian side.

India, which has stepped up purchases of Russian oil shunned by the West, is expected to seek a discount higher than the current rate of $3 to $3.5 a barrel during the visit, sources said.

It will also seek formal approval for a unit of Oil and Natural Gas Corp to retain its stake of 20% in the Sakhalin 1 oil project in Russia’s Far East.

The unit, ONGC Videsh, and the oil ministries of India and Russia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

India has also been keen to boost exports of pharmaceuticals, machinery and other goods to Russia. Two-way trade jumped 33% to $65.7 billion in the last fiscal year that ended in March, with India’s imports accounting for $61.43 billion.

Kwatra said that India has had a special and privileged partnership with Russia since 2020, which has remained resilient in the wake of multiple geopolitical challenges that the world has been facing. The annual summit between the two leaders is the highest mechanism to steer and drive the cooperation between our two countries, he said.

“We also have growing investment ties between the two countries, including in the fields of energy, banking, railways, and steel. These are the growing areas of our investment partnership. Russia also remains an important partner for India’s energy security and defence. In the area of nuclear energy, Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant units 1 and 2 have already become operational. And the work is progressing on units 3 and 6.,”

In the field of defence also, we continue to work closely across a full range of its sub-domains. Both sides are currently working on a series of outcome documents, which would be the result of the summit, he added.

India-Russia ties

Russia has had strong ties with India since the Cold War, and New Delhi’s importance as a key trade partner for Moscow has grown since the Kremlin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. China and India have become key buyers of Russian oil following sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies that shut most Western markets for Russian exports.

Under Modi’s leadership, India has avoided condemning Russia’s action in Ukraine while emphasizing the need for a peaceful settlement.

Russia is a key supplier of cut-price oil and weapons to India, but its isolation from the West and growing friendship with China have impacted its time-honored partnership with New Delhi.

The United States and its Western allies have in recent years cultivated ties with India as a bulwark against Beijing and its growing influence in the Asia-Pacific, while also pressuring it to distance itself from Russia.

Nandan Unnikrishnan of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation told news agency AFP that the upcoming in-person meeting showed the two sides were looking for ways forward.

“There have been pressures on India, and there have been pressures on the India-Russia relationship,” Unnikrishnan said.

“Face-to-face interactions help in working out positions,” he added. “I’m sure Mr Modi would like an assessment from Putin on the Ukraine war.”

With inputs from agencies.