Li Keqiang's visit a chance to reboot India-China ties

Chinese leaders are in general dour-faced men given to making mind-numbingly tedious speeches about “harmonious society” and “scientific development”. Prince Charles, whose own personality is far from scintillating, famously referred to them as “ appalling old waxworks”  - and it’s entirely possible that they took his comments as a compliment. Barring colourful personalities like former President Jiang Zemin, who had a habit of enlivening proceedings by breaking out into operatic tunes and was known to have a glad-eye for the hostesses at Communist Party gatherings, Charles’ description fits Chinese leaders to a nicety. Sombre gravitas and a dyspeptic facial expression are perhaps necessary ‘soft skills’ among China’s top leaders, and it’s well-known that if you’re looking for someone to be the life and soul of a party - even if it’s the Communist Party - you don’t invite Chinese leaders. And, yet, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, who arrives in India today on the first leg of his first international foray since he took over as Premier earlier this year, may already have broken the mould for Chinese leaders. In his interactions with Western diplomats, years before he made it to the second-highest post (behind President and Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping) but long after it became known that he was a “rising star”  in the Communist Party hierarchy, Li has been known to speak with candour in a few Chinese leaders do. [caption id=“attachment_778035” align=“alignright” width=“380”]  Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has broken the mould for Chinese leaders. Reuters[/caption] In one memorable exchange in 2007, with the then US ambassador in China Clark Randt, Li - who today has hands-on control of the Chinese economy - suggested that Chinese GDP data, which inspires shock and awe around the world and projects an image of China as an economic superpower, were entirely unreliable since they were “man-made”. Other diplomats, including Indian diplomats, who have had an audience with Li invariably point to his affable nature, and even a sense of humour, which contrasts sharply with the stuffiness that characterised an earlier generation of leaders. Li is also known to be something of an open thinker, who has had exposure both to the excesses of Communist Party (he was himself sent down to the countryside for “re-education” during the ruinous decade of the Cultural Revolution under Mao Zedong) and to liberal political theory. Some of Li’s friends from his university days were liberal activists who were subsequently jailed or exiled, which initially gave rise to hopes that he might be a reformer at heart. And although that promise has remained unfulfilled, which may account for his rise to the top, Li remains, to China-watchers, a leader who doesn’t conform to stereotypical portrayals of Chinese leaders. All this is worth bearing in mind as Indian leaders and the China-watching community of strategic analysts in India get an up-close look at the man who will be determining the fortunes of the Chinese economy for at least the next decade. Given Li’s personal history and his  personality, it gives Indian officialdom an outside chance to reboot - or at least reposition - Sino-Indian relations without being burdened by the baggage of history. It’s true, of course, that given the complexity of relations between the two countries, it’s beyond individuals - who, in any case, don’t have direct control over the Chinese military - to reorient foreign policy discourse. But Li’s visit nevertheless provides a chance for India to play its diplomatic cards astutely in a way that protects and advances Indian interests. Li’s visit comes barely a month after the border stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops in the Ladakh region following the incursion by Chinese troops into notionally Indian territory, and to that extent, it’’s possible that the contested border between the two countries will come up for prominent mention when the two sides meet. In recent times, the Chinese side has been exhibiting a marked sense of urgency about drawing up a “framework agreement” on the border issue,  evidently to freeze  border infrastructure arrangements in a way that allows China to retain its advantage. But in equal measure, Chinese interest in gaining greater access to Indian markets figures on top of Li’s mind. As the man who will steer the controls of the Chinese economy for the next decade, and as someone who is skeptical about China’s GDP data, Li knows that China’s economic engine is not quite as robust as hyperbolic accounts had made it out to be. His interest lies in prising open newer markets for Chinese industry, and although India’s own economy too has belied earlier intimations of sustained high growth, China sees India as a big-enough market where Chinese companies haven’t gained full exposure. That accounts for the speed with which last month’s border standoff  was resolved - when the Indian foreign policy establishment dropped hints suggesting that the Chinese incursion could potentially jeopardise Li Keqiang’s visit. In the grand play of geo-economic strategy, India and China may frequently be thrown into a borderline contentious relationship around the world, particularly as they compete for strategic assets to fuel their economic growth. But as Firstpost has argued in the past, India is not entirely without options in facing up to China on the occasions that the latter overreaches. If there is an abiding lesson in the history of Sino-Indian relations, right up to the border standoff last month, it is that China is quick to capitalise on perceptions of Indian weakness - be they on the economic or the strategic plane. But in equal measure, on the few occasions that India has pushed back against China, the latter has responded with rather more reasonableness and pragmatism. Although it is too early to make a historical assessment of Li Keqiang, he has been widely acknowledged as a pragmatist whose core responsibility lies in steering the Chinese macroeconomy, which is today walking a fine line. If India plays its cards right during his visit, and protects its interests with finesse, it may find that it can do business with China - and that the two countries have the capacity to reboot the relationship.