Jobs to Israel, 5 factors that make Harris-Trump fight a tight race for White House

With one month until election day, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is as close to a bare-knuckle fight as it gets.

Victory will be determined by the narrowest of margins because the presidential election still appears deadlocked, both nationally and in battleground states. Every new voter who registers and every undecided voter who is persuaded could contribute to a decisive blow.

Party strategists may be preoccupied with how to gain that crucial advantage, but it might also be an unanticipated turn of events outside their control that throws the campaign for a loop in its final weeks.

It has already been a year of political shockwaves, with one contender surviving two assassination attempts and being convicted of a crime, and another, President Joe Biden, stepping out of the campaign in favour of his much younger vice president.

However, when the surprises arrive in October, such as Trump’s Access Hollywood tape or Hillary Clinton’s emails in 2016, there is little time to recover or regain momentum following a misstep or a poor news cycle.

This week alone, there were multiple new rumblings that could escalate into political storms by November 5th.

Hurricane Helene’s political storm

Hurricane Helene destroyed North Carolina, making it a must-win state for Trump.

The first possible political storm was literal. Last week, Hurricane Helene ripped through two important political battlegrounds: Georgia and North Carolina. Because of the overwhelming spotlight on both states during this presidential contest, a humanitarian crisis that has already claimed more than 130 lives has become a political issue.

At a stop in Georgia earlier this week, Harris promised long-term assistance to the area. On Saturday, she paid a visit to those impacted by the hurricane in North Carolina.

“We’re here for the long haul,” she declared in Georgia.

Meanwhile, both states are practically must-wins for Trump, and polls indicate a dead heat. While visiting Georgia, the former president argued that Americans were missing out on disaster assistance funds because they were spent on migrants. In fact, the two independent programs have separate budgets, and the Biden administration accused Republicans of propagating “bold-faced lies” about disaster relief funds.

When calamity hits, the government faces the difficult task of keeping everyone satisfied. If Trump’s assaults succeed, voter dissatisfaction with recovery efforts might influence the outcome in two of the most carefully watched states in the country.

Middle East escalation

The Gaza War , a man-made crisis continues to infiltrate American politics. The Gaza conflict is on the verge of escalating into a regional inferno, with Israeli forces fighting Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon and Iran launching hundreds of missiles at Israel this week.

While Harris has positioned herself as a change agent, she has made no distinction between herself and the current government in terms of US-Israeli ties. This comes with hazards.

Hopes for a pre-election peace in Gaza appear to be crushed, and the White House is now attempting to ensure that the inevitable Israeli reaction to Tuesday’s Iranian strike does not escalate into all-out war.

On Thursday night, Biden said that he did not believe there is going to be an all-out war. “I think we can avoid it. But there’s a lot to do yet”, he added.

The conflict is also having an impact on Democrats, even though most American voters do not consider foreign policy when they vote.

Harris’ vow to continue selling guns to Israel concerns two critical sectors of the Democratic base: Arab-Americans in Michigan, a must-win state, and young voters on college campuses, where anti-war protests may resume.

The crisis in the Middle East has also raised financial concerns. Biden’s warning of the likelihood of Israel targeting Iranian refineries caused the oil price to rise more than 5% on Thursday.

One issue that American consumers are most sensitive to is rising petrol prices.

Pleasant surprises for Democrats

Across the board, public opinion polls demonstrate that the economy remains the most important issue for American voters. And Harris and the Democrats had some good news on that front on Friday, with the most recent employment numbers indicating significant job growth over the last few months and unemployment falling to 4.1%.
For the majority of the election season, Trump has outperformed Harris when respondents are asked who they believe would do a better job with the economy, including a recent CNN poll. However, there are indicators that his lead may not be secure, such as a Cook Political Report poll of swing states that found the two candidates tied on who would be best at dealing with inflation.

The dockworkers strike, which momentarily shut down vital ports on the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico for the first time in 50 years, also dissipated this week. Both parties agreed to return to the bargaining table in January to reopen the ports. If the labour stoppage had continued, it may have disrupted supply chains and raised consumer prices in the weeks preceding the election.

Meanwhile, unauthorised crossings at the US-Mexico border have returned to pre-Covid epidemic levels, following a record high of 249,741 in December.

While the effects of the border surge are still being felt in many American cities, the urgency of the problem may be waning.

6 January attack on US Capitol resurfaces

While most of this week’s news may bode difficulty for Harris and the Democrats, Trump’s week was not without its challenges.

His actions during the 6 January attack on the US Capitol were brought back into focus on Wednesday, when a federal judge published a document from special counsel Jack Smith outlining his case and evidence against Donald Trump for attempting to alter the 2020 election results.

The memo, which argued that the former president should not be granted presidential immunity from prosecution, included new information on Trump’s statements and actions leading up to the Capitol riot by his followers.

According to a recent CNN poll, people prefer Harris to Trump on concerns of “protecting democracy” by 47% to 40%, so anything that refocuses attention on Trump’s turbulent final weeks in office could benefit Democrats.

‘October Surprise’

For nearly 50 years, the term “October surprise” has been part of the American political language. Campaigns dread the unexpected headline or catastrophe that knocks their candidates off topic and alters the course of a race.

Even a slight shift in public opinion might deliver the White House in a year when electoral margins in swing states can be measured in tens of thousands of ballots.