Japan's ruling LDP at risk of losing majority for first time in 15 years, media predictions show

Japan is bracing for the October 27 election, but as per reports in major media outlets there is a prediction that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lose its sole majority in the lower house for the first time in 15 years.

The lower house is the more powerful of the two chambers of Japan’s parliament.

What Japan election predictions say about LDP?

The LDP may not reach the 233 seats it needs for an outright majority in the 465-seat chamber, Nikkei newspaper said on Thursday. Nikkei said that the poll, conducted by phone along with the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper, was carried out nationwide on Tuesday and Wednesday, garnering 165,820 valid responses.

The Mainichi newspaper predicted the LDP to win between 203 and 205 seats in the lower house.  

The paper prediction was based on phone surveys of voters on October 15 and 16 with around 190,000 responses. It also forecast that the coalition partner Komeito is expected to win 24 to 29 seats, lower from 32 seats it has in the lower house currently.

A poll by broadcaster TBS released on Wednesday showed the LDP may lose about 30 seats, while Komeito may shed a small number.  

A Kyodo poll published on Thursday also pointed to challenges for the LDP to secure a majority.

Meanwhile, a forecast by the Yomiuri newspaper mentioned that coalition would win a majority and that around 100 LDP candidates in the election were in a strong position to win their seats, while 120 were in close races.

What could be an alternative for LDP?

On October 9, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba dissolved the lower house of parliament, setting up the snap election.

The LDP, Japan’s single largest political party since 2009, will be required to form a coalition government with its long-standing partner Komeito to remain in power.

Ishiba became the leader last month after his predecessor Fumio Kishida ended his three-year premiership due to public distrust stemming from a string of funding scandals involving LDP politicians.

Ishiba has already set a target of securing a majority with the help of Komeito.  

Public support for LDP has declined since last year following revelations that members of the party were secretly filling their pockets with funds from supporters.

With inputs from agencies.