It's still Hillary Clinton vs The Clown Car in the US Primaries: Here's who the bookies prefer

Are we in the middle of one of the most astonishing meltdowns in American political history? Or is this lady not for turning? It all depends on who you believe — the polls or the betting markets — in the primaries where the Democrats and Republicans select their candidate for the US presidency.

We at the height, are ready to decline

The polling results are so staggering they’re actually causing mutterings about methodology in the polling industry. At best, Hillary Clinton’s run for the Democratic presidential nomination and the White House is losing some of its aura of inevitability. At worst, it’s 2008 all over again. There’s been a steady fall off in her polling numbers from the mid -sixties to the early forties, perhaps predictable as the downside of being an overwhelming favourite kicks in. Corresponding gains accrue to both Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Clinton, in effect, as astute observers have pointed out, is running for the third term of two presidencies, Bill Clinton’s and Barack Obama’s. That is a lot of incumbency to deal with.

Bernie Sanders leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the kick-off states in primary season. If Clinton loses both Iowa and New Hampshire in February 2016 — as the polls are predicting — and still goes on to win her party’s nomination and the Presidency, she would be only the second candidate to do so since the modern primary system was invented. Ironically enough, the first candidate to pull it off was another Clinton, her husband Bill.

So by itself, losing Iowa and New Hampshire, will not cause much heartburn for Clinton despite the media firestorm and attempt to anoint Sanders as the Democrats’ presidential nominee that will almost certainly result. That silver mopped empathizer-in-chief Bill Clinton should offer his wife words of comfort based on his own experience. Besides, the real test as the campaign swings into 2016, will be Super Tuesday on 1 March, when a large number of states select delegates, and party establishments ensure their own candidate and not an insurgent, has the advantage. Still, it must be unnerving for the odds on favorite to wait for Super Tuesday to get going and get herself some momentum.

And then there’s Joe Biden, clever enough to build a sense of “Will He, Won’t He” anticipation that’s feeding into his rising poll numbers. Except that Biden, if elected, will be at 74, the oldest President in American history on Inauguration Day, beating Ronald Reagan by 5 years. This Clinton, if elected, will be 69 on Inauguration Day ; Sanders will be 75, and would beat Biden to the record. By the youth obsessed standards of the most youth obsessed country in the world, the Democrats are running a geriatric ward into the election.

… And now, the clown car

The Republicans have their own issues. The usual clown car routine involves an unusually large number of clowns emerging from a very small car to the circus audience’s delight and applause. The polls say something like that seems to be happening with the Republicans. Its early days yet but the Republicans are simply not producing a credible front runner. Unless one takes a recalcitrant billionaire - Donald Trump - with a knack for offending an entire nation, and repeatedly at that, as a credible candidate. There’s “in your face” and then there’s New York “in your face”, and Trump’s getting away with the latter. Perhaps it’s the authenticity. The other surging candidate behind Trump in the polls is pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Except that the good doctor from The Johns Hopkins has never run for an elected office in his life, and has views on a range of issues that can only be described as eccentric. But he’s cruising in Trump’s slipstream for the moment and also getting away with it.

Shockingly, the polls also say that Jeb Bush, dynast and favored son of the Republican Establishment, is fading, and fading fast at that. But he still has the money to run a long race. Nevertheless, the spending of that money has to move that polling needle at some point. If it doesn’t, do the donors line up behind a front runner - Trump the billionaire - who doesn’t need their money anyway? Huh.

So what to make of all this? Perhaps the betting markets are better at prediction than the polls. Putting your own money on a bet does concentrate the mind better than answering a random phone call survey. The bookies at Paddy Power have Clinton as the odds on favourite for the Democratic nomination at 4 to 11. Joe Biden comes next at 7 to 2, followed by Bernie Sanders at 4 to 1. So the gap between the betting markets and the polls is marked. For the Republican nomination, Jeb Bush surprisingly remains the odds on favourite at 15 to 8. Trump comes in at 3 to 1 and Carson trails at 10 to 1. Again, a large gap between the betting markets and the polls. So its still Clinton v Bush for the Presidency according to the betting markets. But there’s a whole campaign ahead and if a week’s a long time in politics, what’s a year?

For those inclined towards betting - or is it butting - on a long shot, there’s Kim Kardashian at a 1000 to 1 for US President.

Adil Rustomjee is an investment adviser in Mumbai. Comments are welcome at a_rustomjee@hotmail.com