'It's all braggadocio': Trump's former NSA says crisis of 19th century variety likely in second term

John Bolton, former national security adviser and longtime foreign policy hardliner, has delivered a scathing critique of Donald Trump’s approach to governance and decision-making, warning that a second term for the former president could bring about significant international crises.

Speaking to The Guardian, Bolton described Trump’s claims of being uniquely capable of preventing a third world war and resolving global conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine as “typical Trump: it’s all braggadocio.” He warned that Trump’s lack of focus, interest in facts, and coherent strategy makes the risk of a crisis of “the 19th century variety” much higher if he were to return to the White House.

“The world is more dangerous than when he was president before,” Bolton said.

“The only real crisis we had was Covid, which is a long-term crisis and not against a particular foreign power but against a pandemic. But the risk of an international crisis… is much more likely in a second Trump term. Given Trump’s inability to focus on coherent decision-making, I’m very worried about how that might look," he further said.

Bolton’s critique of Trump’s leadership

Bolton, who served as Trump’s national security adviser (NSA) from April 2018 to September 2019, detailed his frustrations with Trump’s approach to governance. He criticised the former president for his decision-making process, which he said was driven by personal relationships and “neuron flashes” rather than a deep understanding of national interests.

“He doesn’t have a philosophy, doesn’t do policy as we understand that, he doesn’t have a national security strategy,” Bolton said.

“His decisions are like an archipelago of dots. You can try and draw lines between them but even he can’t draw lines between them," he further said.

Bolton added that Trump’s disregard for the national security briefing process and his emphasis on personal relationships with authoritarian leaders like China’s Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin posed significant risks.

“He doesn’t know much about foreign policy. He’s not a big reader… He thinks he looks the other guy across the table in the eye and they make a deal and that’s what’s important,” Bolton said.

Trump’s personal rapport with autocrats, according to Bolton, underscores a troubling lack of situational awareness. “If you put everything on the basis of personal relations and you don’t understand how the person you’re talking about on the other side views you, that’s a real lack of situational awareness that can only cause trouble.”

Growing confidence, increasing risks

Bolton warned that a second term could see Trump become even more erratic and disruptive than during his first tenure. “He now feels more confident in his judgment having been re-elected, which will make it even harder to impose any kind of intellectual decision-making discipline,” he said.

Trump has also raised concerns with recent provocative statements, including threatening to take back the Panama Canal, calling for the US to buy Greenland, and suggesting Canada become the 51st state. Kim Darroch, former British ambassador to Washington, described the prospect of a second Trump term as “like a 24/7 bar-room brawl.”

Bolton agreed, adding that Trump’s foreign policy instincts could lead to dangerous outcomes. For example, Trump has claimed he could end Russia’s war on Ukraine within a day. Bolton expressed concern that such an approach might result in compromises detrimental to Ukraine’s sovereignty. “He wants this off the table… which strongly implies he doesn’t care on what terms. And that’s very dangerous for Ukraine.”

‘America First’ & beyond

Under the banner of “America First,” Trump’s foreign policy during his first term often leaned toward isolationism, non-interventionism, and trade protectionism. While Bolton admitted he agreed with “a lot” of Trump’s decisions, he noted that they lacked coherence and were often the result of impulsive judgment.

Bolton, who has advocated for hawkish policies including military action against Iran and North Korea, dismissed the notion that Trump’s approach aligns with the traditional Republican foreign policy outlook. “There’s a liberal Democratic blob that’s pretty problematic but the Republican party remains essentially Reaganite in its outlook. Trump is an aberration and, when he leaves the political scene, the party will snap back,” he argued.

Dangerous appointments?

Bolton also criticised some of Trump’s potential picks for key positions in a second administration, including Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence and Kash Patel as FBI director. “These are really dangerous… Gabbard’s opinions belong on ‘a different planet,’” he said.

As the possibility of another Trump presidency looms, Bolton’s warnings serve as a stark reminder of the potential consequences for U.S. foreign policy and global stability. “We’re in the grips of Trump for four more years,” he cautioned, “and a lot of damage could take place during that period.”