Israel privately estimates at least 50 hostages could be dead: Report

As many as 50 of the hostages taken from Israel by Hamas on 7 October could be dead, a figure that is considerably higher than the 29 deaths Israel has publicly acknowledged, according to a Wall Street Journal report, citing an Israeli assessment shared with US and Egyptian officials. This estimate, disclosed during hostage negotiations in Cairo in recent weeks, has been pivotal in discussions concerning the release of hostages — both living and deceased — still held in Gaza. If the latest Israeli assessment proves accurate, it implies that roughly 80 of the 132 hostages believed to be held by Hamas or other militant groups are still alive, with militants retaining the bodies of numerous individuals they abducted. None of the deceased hostages have been repatriated thus far. During the 7 October  assault on southern Israel, which included terrorist attacks on a music festival and agricultural communities resulting in 1,200 fatalities, Hamas militants and others from Gaza seized over 240 hostages, according to authorities. The tally of living and deceased hostages is central to negotiations facilitated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, with the return of both groups contingent upon the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The issue holds significant political sensitivity in Israel, where the plight of the hostages has been a focal point of public discourse. Families of hostages and other advocates have urged the government to intensify efforts to secure the captives’ release, even if it hinders Israel’s campaign against Hamas. American and Israeli officials caution that their estimates carry a degree of uncertainty. According to the report, US officials have indicated that Israel is currently reassessing whether, in addition to the 29 publicly acknowledged hostage deaths, approximately 20 others have also perished. In a separate acknowledgment, Israel has confirmed that Hamas retains the bodies of two Israeli soldiers killed during the 2014 Gaza conflict. Two other Israelis were captured by Hamas prior to October 7, bringing the total number of known Israeli hostages — deceased or alive—to 136. According to The Wall Street Journal report, citing Egyptian officials, Hamas negotiators have stated their uncertainty regarding the exact number of deceased hostages. Since 7 October, Hamas, recognised as a terrorist organisation by the US, the European Union, and others, has at times claimed it couldn’t locate all the hostages, attributing some to other militant groups or individuals who participated in the 7 October attack. Hamas has also alleged that hostages were killed in Israeli airstrikes, a claim Israel denies, stating that no evidence has been provided to support such assertions. Israel’s military declined to answer questions about the number of hostages that it believes are still alive. “We notified all of the families of hostages that we received credible information indicating that their loved ones have been killed in captivity,” WSJ quoted the military as saying. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt this week in part to advance hostage negotiations. Blinken also plans to travel to Israel and the West Bank. Under a draft agreement proposed by the US, Egypt and Qatar and given initial approval by Israel’s foreign intelligence service, Hamas would free civilian hostages first, leaving soldiers for later. Negotiations over bodies would wait until later stages of the agreement. Hamas on Tuesday told negotiators that it viewed the draft proposal “in a positive spirit” while reiterating the group’s call for a “comprehensive cease-fire.” Blinken, speaking in Qatar, said the US was reviewing Hamas’s response and would discuss it with Israeli officials. Qatar’s prime minister said the Hamas reply included “some comments.” The main split between the two sides is over a cease-fire. Israel has said it is only prepared to offer a temporary cease-fire, while Hamas is demanding an end to the war. If the number of dead hostages is indeed higher than publicly disclosed by Israel, families of hostages could seek to raise the pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Relatives of those held say they fear more could be killed in the fighting or die of disease or neglect. “We know that time isn’t even running out. We are out of time,” Dalia Cusnir, a 42-year-old educator whose two brothers-in-law are held by Hamas in Gaza, told WSJ. With inputs from agencies