Gaza ceasefire talks: Will post-Haniyeh Hamas be more uncompromising? A hint from Yahya Sinwar

With West Asia anxious and Israel on edge over an anticipated “duty call of revenge” by Iran following the killing of former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, the Palestinian group has decided to not participate in the August 15 ceasefire talks that may be held in Egypt or Qatar. Haniyeh was instrumental in taking the ceasefire negotiations further, with US President Joe Biden proposing a formula to bring peace to West Asia.

Haniyeh’s assassination saw the group choose a new political chief — Yahya Sinwar. This has thrust the group’s future strategies into sharp focus. Sinwar’s leadership raises significant questions about whether Hamas will adopt a more rigid stance in ceasefire negotiations and broader diplomatic efforts.

Early signs: Hamas’s stance on ceasefire negotiations

In what appeared as a change of stance, Hamas has explicitly rejected participating in new negotiations for a ceasefire-hostage deal , scheduled to take place in Cairo, Egypt or Doha, Qatar.
Instead, the group has demanded that mediators present a plan based on previous agreements from July 2, which align with President Joe Biden’s vision and the UN Security Council resolution.

Hamas’s statement insists that mediators should enforce these prior agreements rather than engaging in new rounds of discussions. The group’s refusal to enter fresh negotiations underscores its rigid stance and desire to avoid proposals perceived as beneficial to Israel’s position.

It said, “The mediators should enforce this on the occupation [Israel] instead of pursuing further rounds of negotiations or new proposals that would provide cover for the occupation’s aggression and grant it more time to continue its genocide against our people.”

International mediators from Qatar, Egypt and the US last week urged Israel and Hamas to attend negotiations on a ceasefire and hostage release deal on August 15. Israel later said it would participate in the meeting.

Negotiations faltered last month, after new terms were introduced to the framework presented by Biden in May. According to Biden’s truce plan, a deal that would start with a full ceasefire and the release of a number of hostages . The UN Security Council later endorsed that framework.

Sinwar’s hardline approach

Yahya Sinwar, now at the helm of Hamas, is markedly different from his predecessor Haniyeh. Known for his hardline position and military credentials, Sinwar is believed to be a pivotal figure behind the recent brutal attacks on Israel. This shift in leadership suggests a likely move towards more uncompromising tactics.

Sinwar is viewed as a key strategist behind Hamas’s recent aggressive operations, including the devastating attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in significant casualties among Israeli soldiers and civilians.

West Asia experts, such as Khaled Elgindy from the Middle East Institute, anticipate that Sinwar’s influence will make Hamas’s decision-making process tougher and less amenable to compromise, complicating any efforts towards a ceasefire.

Sinwar’s leadership could also strain efforts to achieve Palestinian unity. Haniyeh had been involved in recent reconciliation talks with Fatah, aiming to bridge gaps between the factions.

Sinwar’s more hardline approach, however, may impede these efforts. Analysts, including Mouin Rabbani, suggest that while President Mahmoud Abbas is a significant barrier to reconciliation, Sinwar’s scepticism towards concessions could exacerbate the divisions within Palestinian politics.

How it may impact Hamas’s strategic foreign relations

Sinwar’s tenure is expected to continue Hamas’s strategic alliances with regional powers such as Qatar and Iran. Unlike Haniyeh, who could travel internationally, Sinwar’s confinement within Gaza due to the ongoing conflict may limit his direct diplomatic engagements. Haniyeh usually lived in Doha and met with foreign leaders to get a broader perspective about the Israel-Hamas conflict. Sinwar, on the other hand, has lived in Gaza since he was released by Israel in 2011 , and has lived through the sentiments that Gazans express every time Israel carries out an attack.

Nevertheless, Sinwar is also said to be pragmatic towards foreign relations and eyes strengthening ties with any state or organisation willing to support Hamas, regardless of ideological considerations. But this also hardens his stand on Israel.

Sinwar’s rise to power has marked a significant shift in Hamas’s approach, potentially leading to more rigid positions in ceasefire talks and internal Palestinian politics. The group’s rejection of new negotiations and demand for the implementation of previous agreements reflect its uncompromising stance under Sinwar’s leadership, further complicating efforts toward peace and reconciliation.