 "Can Trump really be the peacemaker in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars?")
US President-elect Donald Trump has pitched himself as a deal-maker.
Be it the war in Ukraine, the escalating conflict in the Middle East, or the Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, Trump has pitched himself as the solution.
Trump has claimed that if he were the president, Russia would have never attacked Ukraine and Hamas would have never attacked Israel.
For more than a year, Trump has said that he would end the war in Ukraine soon after assuming office. He has also told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants the war in West Asia to end by the time he takes office. But can he do it?
‘I could solve it in 24 hours’: Trump on Ukraine war
Much of Trump’s approach to international affairs and foreign policy rests on his confidence in his personality. He believes that his personal relationships with world leaders, backed by the hard power of the US military and economy, will make him have his way.
Trump has long said that he would walk into a room and issue commands and people would follow him. He has a similar plan for Ukraine.
In an interview with Fox News last year, Trump said that he said he would tell Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to strike a deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, whom he has fawned over for years. Then, he said he would tell Putin to accept the deal with Zelenskyy. Then, he said the deal would be made within a day.
“I know Zelenskyy very well and I know Putin very well, even better, and I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, ‘No more, you got to make a deal’. I would tell Putin, ‘If you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give him [Zelenskyy] a lot. We’re going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day,” said Trump.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsSeparately, Trump once said that his personality stopped the outbreak of war.
“My personality kept us out of war and I told you before, [it] would have never happened with Russia. Putin would have never ever gone in and even now I could solve that in 24 hours. It’s so horrible what happened. Those cities are demolished now,” said Trump, as per Newsweek.
Even though Trump has not outlined his purported peace deal, observers have said that Trump would most likely force Zelenskyy into a standstill agreement, which would either freeze the territorial conflict and the end the war, which would be a gift for Russia, or Trump would nudge Ukraine if not outright force it to cede some territory to end the war.
What’s Trump’s plan for West Asia?
Trump has told Netanyahu that he wants the wars in West Asia to end by the time he takes office, according to The Times of Israel.
During his first term, Trump presided over the normalisation of relations between Israel and UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. However, Trump completely excluded the Palestinians from the so-called Middle East peace process.
Trump is expected to revert to the ‘Maximum Pressure’ strategy on Iran, which several experts have credited with prompting Iran’s aggression across the region by shunning diplomacy. While Trump may convince Netanyahu into making a deal, which is anyway in the making for months as a string of military successes have tilted the scales in Israel’s favour, he is unlikely to do much for the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
For the Palestinian state, Trump has been non-committal. His son-in-law Jared Kushner, who was in charge of the Middle East policy in his first term, has termed the Palestinian state a “super bad idea” and David Friedman, the envoy to Israel during his first tenure, has unveiled a plan for the region which includes the Israeli annexation of West Bank, essentially killing a chance for a Palestinian state.
Can Trump strike a deal with China in Asia?
Trump has indicated that the support to Taiwan in a conflict with China would not be guaranteed.
On the contrary, outgoing President Joe Biden had stated that the US commitment to the security of Taiwan would be ironclad. He went as far as saying that the United States would deploy boots on the ground if China were to invade Taiwan.
China considers the self-ruling island of Taiwan as a breakaway province and is committed to its reunification with the mainland — even forcefully.
Trump has said that “Taiwan should pay us for defense” — just like he has threatened NATO allies in Europe.
Trump has said he would impose heavy tariffs on Chinese goods and stop the outsourcing of manufacturing there. He has called China “toughest” when it comes to trade.
Not just China, Trump has also accused India of unjust trade practices, calling it “big abuser” of free trade.
Trump has said that he would impose reciprocal tariffs, which means that if a nation would discourage US imports, he would discourage that country’s exports to the United States via tariffs.
“We are gonna do reciprocal trade tax. If someone charges us 10 cents, 2 dollars, 100 per cent, or 250 per cent, we charge them the same. Do you know what’s gonna happen? Everything is gonna disappear and we’ll have free trade again. If it doesn’t happen, we’re gonna put it all out of market,” said Trump in September during a town hall.
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