Is Taiwan already at war with China? What will be Beijing's first step if it invades the island?

Taiwan is already at war– not with bombs and bullets, but with an invisible, relentless campaign of cyberattacks and undersea sabotage. Every day, Taiwan faces 2.4 million cyberattacks, a figure that has doubled in just a year. These digital incursions, attributed to China, are not merely disruptions– they are part of a sustained strategy to weaken Taiwan’s institutions, destabilize its governance, and probe its defenses.

“We already have experienced a kind of war-like situation from China’s cyberattacks,” said I-Chung Lai, President of Taiwan’s Prospect Foundation, while speaking at Firstpost’s IdeasPod during the Raisina Dialogue 2025.  

“Every day, 2.4 million cyberattacks target Taiwan. That’s double what we saw in 2023. Despite this, we have not seen major cyber incidents disrupting public infrastructure– hospitals remain open, government functions continue.”

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While Taiwan has so far withstood the onslaught, the escalation is clear: China is testing Taiwan’s resilience, preparing for a moment when these attacks might escalate.  

Cutting the cables: Taiwan’s digital lifeline at risk

Beyond the digital battlefield, another silent threat looms beneath the waves: Taiwan’s undersea cables. Since 2023, at least 11 undersea cables have been damaged—some connecting Taiwan to offshore islands, but others forming critical links between Taiwan and the rest of the world.

“The 11 damaged cables mostly affected Taiwan’s offshore islands, but if China damaged all 28 key cables—14 in the north and 14 in the south—it wouldn’t just affect Taiwan. The entire Indo-Pacific’s data network would be disrupted,” said Lai.

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Hiroyuki Akita, a foreign and international security commentator at Nikkei Asia, sees a clear intent here.

“Cyberattacks and cutting undersea cables…would be the beginning of a full-scale invasion by China,” Akita explained. “Over 90 per cent of the flow of international data and information happens through the undersea cables…not only in Taiwan, but in all regions of the world,” he said, before adding, “China will prevent Taiwan from sending any information out of Taiwan.”

Damaging these cables would not only isolate Taiwan digitally, but also disrupt international markets and security communications across the region. This isn’t hypothetical—when a major earthquake in southern Taiwan damaged undersea cables years ago, stock markets in the Middle East suffered immediate disruptions.

This tactic is part of Beijing’s broader grey zone warfare strategy– coercive tactics that fall short of direct military confrontation but gradually erode Taiwan’s security and economy.

Lessons from Ukraine: Taiwan’s path to resilience

Taiwanese officials have studied Russia’s invasion of Ukraine carefully, recognizing parallels in China’s strategy. Akita, who visited Ukraine and interviewed President Volodymyr Zelensky in December 2023, drew three major lessons for Taiwan:

Self-defense comes first. “If you want support from other countries, you must first fight for yourself,” Akita said. “Nations that demonstrate the will to defend themselves are more likely to receive external assistance.”

Alliances must be built in peacetime. “You cannot mobilize global support after being attacked,” he warned. “Taiwan must strengthen its partnerships now.”

Infrastructure resilience is key. “Despite relentless Russian bombings on Ukraine’s power grids, transportation, and telecommunications, Kyiv and other cities continued functioning. Taiwan must ensure similar resilience in the face of an attack.”