Is Le Pen verdict a Trump moment for Europe's right wing?

France’s right-wing politician Marine Le Pen’s conviction on Monday and subsequent five-year ban from political office have sent shockwaves through the country and the continent. As the face of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, Le Pen was seen as the frontrunner for the 2027 presidential elections.

However, the Paris criminal court’s decision to sentence her to four years in prison (two of them suspended) for embezzling European Parliament funds has upended the French political landscape. While she has vowed to appeal, the immediate enforcement of the ban creates a major roadblock for her political aspirations.

The ruling has prompted widespread condemnation from Le Pen’s allies both domestically and internationally. According to France24, Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary took to social media, posting “Je suis Marine!” in a deliberate echo of the solidarity phrase used after the Charlie Hebdo attacks.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov framed the ruling as evidence of Europe’s democratic decline aligning with Russia’s broader narrative that European institutions are undermining democratic norms. US President Donald Trump said that the French court’s decision to ban Le Pen from seeking public office is “a very big deal”.

A Trump moment for Europe’s Right?

Le Pen and her supporters have framed the ruling as an attempt to politically neutralise the French right-wing movement. According to a France24 report, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini decried the verdict as a “declaration of war by Brussels” while Spanish far-right leader Santiago Abascal insisted that the ruling was an attempt to “silence the voice of the French people”.

This sense of political persecution has parallels with US President Trump’s legal battles, which have paradoxically bolstered his popularity among his base. Trump, despite multiple indictments, went on to win the presidential election last year leveraging his legal troubles to reinforce his outsider status and depict himself as a victim of the establishment.

Similarly, Le Pen’s conviction may not diminish her appeal among her core supporters but rather strengthen the perception that she is fighting against a rigged system, a report in The Guardian said.

Comparing Le Pen’s predicament to Trump’s legal challenges raises compelling questions about the future of populist, far right movements in Europe. Like Trump, Le Pen has built a political career on the claim that she represents the “forgotten” citizens against a corrupt elite.

Like Trump, she now faces legal obstacles that threaten to derail her political ambitions. And like Trump, she could emerge from this crisis with her political movement emboldened rather than diminished.

However, there are key differences. Trump remains a dominant figure in US politics which his second presidency has already proved, capable of directing his party’s trajectory despite his legal woes. In contrast, Le Pen’s immediate disqualification means the RN must find an alternative candidate—a challenge that could weaken the party’s electoral prospects.

Additionally, the French legal system operates differently from the American judicial and political system. Unlike US, Le Pen’s ban is enforceable unless overturned on appeal. This legal reality significantly complicates her ability to replicate Trump’s strategy of using legal troubles as a rallying cry.

The National Rally in crisis

Internally, the ruling has thrown the NR into turmoil. Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s protegr and RN’s current leader, has been left to tackle the fallout of her disqualification. While Bardella is popular, his relative inexperience raises concerns about his ability to step into Le Pen’s shoes in 2027, The Economist said in a report. His impassioned response to the ruling—describing it as an “execution of French democracy”—reflects the broader uncertainty within the party, The Guardian said.

The RN has historically positioned itself as an anti-establishment force railing against corruption among traditional politicians. However, this verdict directly contradicts that image as it exposes systematic financial misconduct within the party.

The court found that Le Pen and 24 other party officials had misused over €4 million in European funds employing parliamentary assistants who did not perform their official duties but instead worked for the party’s national headquarters.

Despite this, many believe the ruling may fuel support for the party rather than diminish it. Le Pen’s conviction does not suggest personal enrichment, but rather misallocation of funds—a distinction that allows her to maintain her narrative of systemic victimisation, The Guardian said.

European right-wing leaders rally in support

The backlash against the ruling has not been confined to France. Right-wing leaders across Europe see Le Pen’s legal troubles as part of a broader pattern of political repression. Belgium’s Tom Van Grieken argued that when nationalist politicians gain popularity, “the system seeks other, non-democratic ways to silence them”, France24 reported.

Geert Wilders, the Dutch far-right leader, expressed his “shock” at the severity of the ruling and voiced confidence that Le Pen would “win the appeal and become President of France”.

This international response mirrors the way many right-wing figures rallied around Trump after his legal troubles. Just as Trump’s indictments have been framed as evidence of deep-state interference, Le Pen’s verdict is being positioned as a politically motivated attack by globalist elites.

The impact of Le Pen’s conviction on the French electoral arena remains uncertain. While the verdict is a severe blow to her personal ambitions, it does not necessarily spell the end for the far-right movement in France. If anything, it could reinforce the NR’s anti-establishment appeal galvanising its base ahead of the 2027 elections.

However, there are risks involved. Unlike Trump, who remains at the helm of his political movement despite legal troubles, Le Pen’s disqualification raises the question of succession. The RN has never fielded a presidential candidate who was not a Le Pen—either Marine or her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Without her, can the party maintain its electoral strength?

Moreover, France’s centrist and left-wing parties may capitalise on this moment to reframe the far right as corrupt and unfit to govern. Already, mainstream French media have highlighted the irony of Le Pen’s conviction given that the RN has long campaigned on an anti-corruption platform.

A turning point for the far right?

Le Pen’s conviction represents a defining moment for the French far right and could have broader implications for Europe’s nationalist movements. Whether this ruling weakens or strengthens the RN in the long term depends on multiple factors: the outcome of her appeal, the party’s ability to find a credible successor and how voters interpret the verdict.

What is clear is that Le Pen’s legal troubles have deepened the sense of persecution among European far-right leaders, fuelling narratives of an establishment crackdown on nationalist movements.

If Le Pen manages to maintain political relevance despite her conviction, her story could indeed mirror Trump’s—turning legal adversity into a rallying point. But if the RN fails to regroup, the verdict could mark the beginning of a decline rather than a resurgence.

For now, Europe’s right wing leaders are watching closely knowing that the outcome of this case could set a precedent for how nationalist figures handle legal and political challenges in an increasingly polarised environment.